The School of Odds
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Örebro HK v Luleå HF

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Örebro HK (Local)

Prediction 40.00%2.50fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.812%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.59%39.88%40.00%40.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.322.332.4546.51%43.05%42.92%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luleå HF (Visit)

Prediction 36.34%2.75fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.31%36.47%36.34%37.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.562.602.6542.55%39.01%38.46%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.65%4.23fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -0.735%
Kelly -0.972%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.47%23.65%23.65%24.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.954.004.1028.17%25.33%25.00%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Örebro HK (Local): 40.00%; Luleå HF (Visit): 36.34%; Draw: 23.65%. For Örebro HK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -1.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.63%EV -1.99%E -0.812%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -7.33%E -2.87%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -7.75%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-17 17:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.14%EV -3.99%E -1.66%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.36%EV -3.70%E -1.40%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.50%EV -3.01%E -0.735%K -0.972%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-17 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.14%EV -3.99%E -1.66%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.36%EV -3.70%E -1.40%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.50%EV -3.01%E -0.735%K -0.972%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-17 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.14%EV -3.99%E -1.66%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.36%EV -3.70%E -1.40%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.50%EV -3.01%E -0.735%K -0.972%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-17 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.23%EV -4.79%E -2.01%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.41%EV -4.42%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -3.01%E -0.735%K -0.972%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-17 18:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.17%EV -4.79%E -2.01%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.22%EV -4.06%E -1.54%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.61%EV -4.20%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-17 17:59
Coolbet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.83%EV -4.79%E -2.01%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70%EV -5.38%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-17 18:00
1xBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.49%EV -5.59%E -2.37%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.20%EV -4.06%E -1.54%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -3.01%E -0.735%K -0.972%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-17 17:55
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.34%EV -6.79%E -2.91%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.15%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -5.38%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.34%EV -6.79%E -2.91%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.15%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -5.38%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 18:00
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.34%EV -6.79%E -2.91%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.15%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -5.38%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 18:00
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.34%EV -6.79%E -2.91%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.15%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -5.38%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 18:00
LeoVegas🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.79%E -3.86%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.18%EV -7.33%E -2.87%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -6.56%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 18:00
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -8.79%E -3.86%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.19%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -11.29%E -3.01%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-17 18:00
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.90%EV -9.99%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -7.33%E -2.87%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -5.38%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-17 18:00
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.02%EV -9.99%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.31%EV -7.33%E -2.87%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.67%EV -13.66%E -3.74%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-17 17:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.59%EV -9.99%E -4.44%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.95%EV -14.60%E -6.21%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.46%EV -16.02%E -4.51%K -6.28%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-17 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.85%EV -11.99%E -5.45%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -5.38%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-17 18:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.94%EV -13.99%E -6.51%K -12.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.54%EV -14.60%E -6.21%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.52%EV -13.66%E -3.74%K -5.15%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-17 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%4.0%2026-03-17 18:00
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%4.3%2026-03-17 18:00
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%4.5%2026-03-17 18:00
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%4.5%2026-03-17 17:59
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%4.5%2026-03-17 17:59
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-03-17 17:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-03-17 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-03-17 18:00
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-17 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-17 17:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-03-17 18:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-03-17 18:00
Smarkets◎1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-17 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%8.7%2026-03-17 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%8.7%2026-03-17 17:59
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%8.7%2026-03-17 17:59
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%8.7%2026-03-17 18:00