The School of Odds
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Örebro HK v IF Björklöven

Kickoff: 2026-09-24 17:01 UTC

Final: Örebro HK 3–4 IF Björklöven

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Örebro HK (Local)

Prediction 50.98%1.96fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -4.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.37%50.89%50.98%52.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.791.791.8859.52%55.74%55.87%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IF Björklöven (Visit)

Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd
EV +4.46%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.070%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.13%27.18%27.13%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.553.553.8532.26%28.20%28.17%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.88%4.57fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -0.843%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.40%21.93%21.88%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.234.304.4027.03%23.63%23.26%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Örebro HK (Local): 50.98%; IF Björklöven (Visit): 27.13%; Draw: 21.88%. For IF Björklöven (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.46%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.88%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV +4.46%E +1.16%K +1.56%G +0.070%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV -3.71%E -0.843%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-24 12:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.88%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV +4.46%E +1.16%K +1.56%G +0.070%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV -3.71%E -0.843%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-24 12:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.88%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV +4.46%E +1.16%K +1.56%G +0.070%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV -3.71%E -0.843%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-24 12:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.67%EV -7.72%E -4.26%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV +1.74%E +0.465%K +0.634%G +0.011%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.91%EV -4.80%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-24 12:20
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%EV -9.25%E -5.20%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV +0.387%E +0.105%K +0.144%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.90%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-24 12:19
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%EV -9.25%E -5.20%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV +0.387%E +0.105%K +0.144%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.90%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-24 12:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%EV -9.25%E -5.20%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV +0.387%E +0.105%K +0.144%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.90%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-24 12:19
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%EV -9.25%E -5.20%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV +0.387%E +0.105%K +0.144%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.90%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-24 12:19
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -11.80%E -6.82%K -16.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -2.33%E -0.646%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.08%E -1.92%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-24 12:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.52%EV -4.15%E -2.21%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%EV -6.99%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 11:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.92%EV -14.35%E -8.54%K -21.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%EV -10.27%E -2.51%K -3.31%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-24 12:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.24%EV -6.70%E -3.66%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.95%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.81%EV -5.90%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-24 15:39
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -5.68%E -3.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.21%EV -6.12%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -5.90%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-24 15:45
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -5.68%E -3.07%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -5.24%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-24 17:00
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.23%E -4.57%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.08%E -1.92%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-24 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.50%EV -9.25%E -5.20%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -13.18%E -4.12%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -8.08%E -1.92%K -2.53%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-24 17:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 49.67%EV -11.29%E -6.49%K -15.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.88%EV -15.89%E -5.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.45%EV -15.74%E -4.09%K -5.52%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-24 17:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.37%EV -11.80%E -6.82%K -16.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.55%EV -15.89%E -5.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.08%EV -19.03%E -5.14%K -7.05%G +0.000%17.1%2026-09-24 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%4.2%2026-09-24 11:20
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%5.0%2026-09-24 15:50
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-09-24 17:00
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-09-24 17:00
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%6.0%2026-09-24 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-09-24 12:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-09-23 08:45
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-09-23 08:45
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%8.3%2026-09-24 11:20
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 55.12%1.56I 64.10%NM 44.88%42.8%2026-09-24 17:00