The School of Odds
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Örebro HK v Djurgårdens IF

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Örebro HK (Local)

Prediction 48.97%2.04fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.532%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.29%49.16%48.97%50.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.911.932.0254.95%52.27%51.81%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Djurgårdens IF (Visit)

Prediction 29.00%3.45fair odd
EV -0.816%
Edge -0.239%
Kelly -0.337%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%28.71%29.00%30.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.223.253.4235.09%31.03%30.77%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.03%4.54fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -0.701%
Kelly -0.907%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.83%22.12%22.03%23.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.184.204.4026.67%23.94%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Örebro HK (Local): 48.97%; Djurgårdens IF (Visit): 29.00%; Draw: 22.03%. For Djurgårdens IF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.42, with an expected value of -0.816%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.37%EV -1.07%E -0.532%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.17%EV -2.85%E -0.850%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.46%EV -4.19%E -0.962%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-05 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.06%EV -3.03%E -1.53%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -5.75%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -7.49%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.00%EV -3.52%E -1.79%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -2.85%E -0.850%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.19%EV -4.19%E -0.962%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-05 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.00%EV -3.52%E -1.79%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -2.85%E -0.850%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.19%EV -4.19%E -0.962%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-05 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.79%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -4.30%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV -6.39%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 16:35
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.35%EV -4.50%E -2.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -7.20%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV -6.39%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-05 14:05
Coolbet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.50%EV -4.99%E -2.57%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.67%EV -2.85%E -0.850%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.83%EV -3.09%E -0.701%K -0.907%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 16:59
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.70%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -5.75%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -7.49%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-05 16:39
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.70%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -5.75%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -7.49%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-05 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.70%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -5.75%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -7.49%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-05 16:35
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.70%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -5.75%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -7.49%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-05 16:35
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.08%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.02%EV -2.56%E -0.761%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -5.29%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-05 17:55
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -7.20%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -9.69%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-05 16:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.96%EV -7.93%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -13.00%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -9.69%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-05 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -9.40%E -5.08%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.44%EV -0.816%E -0.239%K -0.337%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83%EV -5.29%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-05 17:55
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.06%EV -9.40%E -5.08%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -8.65%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -9.69%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-05 16:35
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.50%EV -9.40%E -5.08%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.49%EV -8.65%E -2.74%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -14.10%E -3.61%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-05 13:54
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.29%EV -9.89%E -5.37%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.50%EV -14.45%E -4.90%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.21%EV -17.40%E -4.64%K -6.33%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-05 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.36%EV -10.87%E -5.97%K -13.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.25%EV -17.35%E -6.09%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.39%EV -15.20%E -3.95%K -5.33%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-05 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00%1.6%2026-03-05 17:50
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%3.8%2026-03-05 14:05
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%4.1%2026-03-05 13:50
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%4.6%2026-03-05 17:47
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%5.1%2026-03-05 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%5.2%2026-03-05 17:20
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%5.3%2026-03-05 17:10
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%5.3%2026-03-05 17:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 57.73%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.27%5.6%2026-03-05 17:55
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-03-05 17:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-03-05 17:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-03-05 17:05
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-03-02 19:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-03-02 19:54
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%8.0%2026-03-05 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%8.1%2026-03-02 18:14