The School of Odds
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Malmö Redhawks v Örebro HK

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 17:00 UTC

Final: Malmö Redhawks 6–0 Örebro HK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmö Redhawks (Local)

Prediction 58.42%1.71fair odd
EV +3.99%
Edge +2.24%
Kelly +5.12%
Growth +0.204%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.70%57.78%58.75%60.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.651.7862.50%59.69%60.61%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Örebro HK (Visit)

Prediction 41.58%2.41fair odd
EV -0.213%
Edge -0.089%
Kelly -0.152%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.00%42.22%41.25%47.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.172.252.4051.28%46.08%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malmö Redhawks (Local): 58.42%; Örebro HK (Visit): 41.58%. For Malmö Redhawks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.71. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.99%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV +3.99%E +2.24%K +5.12%G +0.204%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -14.35%E -6.97%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV +2.24%E +1.28%K +2.98%G +0.067%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -18.92%E -9.70%K -19.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:25
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV +2.24%E +1.28%K +2.98%G +0.067%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -18.92%E -9.70%K -19.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV +2.24%E +1.28%K +2.98%G +0.067%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -18.92%E -9.70%K -19.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:25
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV +2.24%E +1.28%K +2.98%G +0.067%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -18.92%E -9.70%K -19.92%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:25
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.60%E -2.18%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.29%E -0.975%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-15 16:15
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.60%E -2.18%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.45%E -2.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-12 17:15
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.60%E -2.18%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.45%E -2.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-12 17:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.36%E -3.31%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.53%E -3.88%K -7.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.94%E -3.69%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.37%E -1.90%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 16:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.94%E -3.69%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.37%E -1.90%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 16:15
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.94%E -3.69%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.37%E -1.90%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 16:15
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -6.52%E -4.08%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -0.213%E -0.089%K -0.152%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-15 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.34%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.66%2.8%2026-10-15 16:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%7.6%2026-10-15 16:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%7.6%2026-10-15 16:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.86%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.46%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.68%2.5%2026-10-15 16:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-10-15 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-10-15 16:10
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.29%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.07%4.2%2026-10-15 16:10
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.72%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.46%4.8%2026-10-15 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41%5.0%2026-10-15 16:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.11%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.91%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%6.1%2026-10-15 16:15
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.82%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-10-15 16:50
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%6.4%2026-10-15 16:09
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%6.4%2026-10-15 16:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%6.4%2026-10-15 16:10
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%6.4%2026-10-15 16:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.03%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.11%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%6.7%2026-10-15 16:45
TABtouch🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.53%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.17%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%9.4%2026-10-15 16:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.33%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%10.3%2026-10-15 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 44.78%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.72%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.50%16.3%2026-10-15 16:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.13%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.48%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.38%17.2%2026-10-15 16:50