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Malmö Redhawks v Leksands IF

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmö Redhawks (Local)

Prediction 44.38%2.25fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.465%
Kelly -0.843%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.34%44.30%44.38%45.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.132.152.2350.51%47.02%46.51%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leksands IF (Visit)

Prediction 32.52%3.07fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.812%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.02%32.64%32.52%33.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.872.883.0038.46%34.83%34.72%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.10%4.33fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -0.708%
Kelly -0.930%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.86%23.06%23.10%24.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.973.954.2027.40%25.22%25.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malmö Redhawks (Local): 44.38%; Leksands IF (Visit): 32.52%; Draw: 23.10%. For Malmö Redhawks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.23, with an expected value of -1.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.72%EV -1.04%E -0.465%K -0.843%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.50%EV -2.44%E -0.812%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-12 16:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.72%EV -1.04%E -0.465%K -0.843%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.50%EV -2.44%E -0.812%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-12 16:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.72%EV -1.04%E -0.465%K -0.843%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.50%EV -2.44%E -0.812%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-12 16:15
Coolbet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.34%EV -1.48%E -0.667%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.76%EV -7.32%E -2.57%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%EV -2.98%E -0.708%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-12 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.56%EV -2.37%E -1.08%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.48%EV -4.06%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.96%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-12 16:15
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -4.14%E -1.92%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.65%EV -6.34%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -8.75%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 16:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -4.14%E -1.92%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.65%EV -6.34%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -8.75%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 16:15
Grosvenor🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -4.14%E -1.92%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.65%EV -6.34%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -8.75%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 16:15
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -4.14%E -1.92%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.65%EV -6.34%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -8.75%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 16:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.38%EV -4.59%E -2.13%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.35%EV -4.06%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-12 17:15
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.58%EV -5.92%E -2.79%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.42%EV -7.32%E -2.57%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 16:15
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.21%EV -6.81%E -3.24%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -7.32%E -2.57%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-12 17:15
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -6.81%E -3.24%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.94%E -3.19%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -12.22%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-12 16:15
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.03%EV -7.25%E -3.47%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.01%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.27%EV -8.14%E -3.93%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.87%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 16:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.16%EV -9.03%E -4.40%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.92%EV -10.57%E -3.84%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.92%EV -8.75%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-12 17:15
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.02%EV -5.69%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -13.37%E -3.57%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-12 14:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.43%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.78%EV -13.82%E -5.21%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.80%EV -15.68%E -4.30%K -5.92%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-12 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.68%EV -12.13%E -6.13%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.26%EV -15.45%E -5.94%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.06%EV -13.37%E -3.57%K -4.86%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-12 17:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29%2.6%2026-03-12 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29%2.6%2026-03-12 16:35
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%3.3%2026-03-12 17:55
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%3.9%2026-03-12 17:15
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%4.3%2026-03-12 14:05
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%4.7%2026-03-12 16:25
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-03-12 17:15
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-03-12 17:15
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-12 14:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-12 14:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-12 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-03-11 13:45
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-03-11 13:45
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-03-11 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-03-11 13:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-03-11 08:45
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%1.59I 62.89%NM 57.71%9.0%2026-03-12 17:45