The School of Odds
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Malmö Redhawks v Frölunda HC

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:00 UTC

Final: Malmö Redhawks 1–2 Frölunda HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmö Redhawks (Local)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV +0.000%
Edge +0.000%
Kelly +0.000%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%50.08%50.00%51.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.931.912.0054.64%51.85%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frölunda HC (Visit)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.56%49.92%50.00%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.851.901.9657.80%54.12%52.63%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malmö Redhawks (Local): 50.00%; Frölunda HC (Visit): 50.00%. For Malmö Redhawks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of 0.000%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +0.000%E +0.000%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -13.50%E -7.80%K -18.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-25 07:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +0.000%E +0.000%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -13.50%E -7.80%K -18.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-25 07:04
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +0.000%E +0.000%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -13.50%E -7.80%K -18.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-25 07:05
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +0.000%E +0.000%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -13.50%E -7.80%K -18.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-25 07:05
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.50%E -1.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-26 14:00
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 15:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 15:15
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 15:09
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 15:24
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 15:25
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -7.50%E -4.05%K -8.82%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -2.00%E -1.02%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 15:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.50%E -4.64%K -10.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.50%E -4.64%K -10.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-26 15:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%8.1%2026-09-26 15:15
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 49.18%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.82%9.9%2026-09-26 15:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.40%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.89%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%2.9%2026-09-26 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%3.2%2026-09-26 15:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%3.2%2026-09-26 15:20
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.72%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.91%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.37%4.0%2026-09-26 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.86%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%5.0%2026-09-26 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.80%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%5.8%2026-09-26 15:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.11%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.00%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%6.5%2026-09-26 15:15
1xBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.11%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.00%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%6.5%2026-09-26 15:29
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%6.7%2026-09-26 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%6.7%2026-09-26 15:25
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%6.7%2026-09-26 15:20
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%6.7%2026-09-26 15:20
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%6.7%2026-09-26 15:25
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.40%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.00%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%10.0%2026-09-26 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.22%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.74%11.3%2026-09-26 15:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.33%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.97%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%12.5%2026-09-26 15:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.13%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.99%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.88%16.6%2026-09-26 15:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.77%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.63%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.61%17.7%2026-09-26 15:49