The School of Odds
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Malmö Redhawks v Djurgårdens IF

Kickoff: 2026-03-19 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmö Redhawks (Local)

Prediction 45.82%2.18fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.696%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.30%46.00%45.82%47.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.032.052.1553.19%49.15%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Djurgårdens IF (Visit)

Prediction 30.88%3.24fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -0.867%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.14%30.87%30.88%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.033.053.1536.36%33.00%32.79%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.30%4.29fair odd
EV +0.211%
Edge +0.049%
Kelly +0.064%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.24%23.13%23.30%23.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.034.004.3027.40%24.82%25.00%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malmö Redhawks (Local): 45.82%; Djurgårdens IF (Visit): 30.88%; Draw: 23.30%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.211%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.77%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.93%EV -4.27%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.30%EV +0.211%E +0.049%K +0.064%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-19 16:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.11%EV -6.99%E -3.45%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.65%EV -3.66%E -1.17%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +0.211%E +0.049%K +0.064%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-19 16:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -1.50%E -0.696%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.10%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.33%EV -2.12%E -0.505%K -0.662%G +0.000%2.1%2026-03-19 16:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.92%EV -2.87%E -1.35%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.90%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.18%EV -2.12%E -0.505%K -0.662%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-19 16:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.92%EV -2.87%E -1.35%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.90%EV -2.73%E -0.867%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.18%EV -2.12%E -0.505%K -0.662%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-19 16:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.91%EV -4.70%E -2.26%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.27%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.29%EV -4.45%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-19 16:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.03%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73%EV -4.27%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -4.45%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 22:15
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.30%EV -2.87%E -1.35%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.98%EV -4.27%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.71%EV -5.61%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-19 10:19
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.78%E -1.70%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 16:09
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.78%E -1.70%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 16:09
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.78%E -1.70%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 16:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.78%E -1.70%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 16:09
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.36%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.78%E -1.70%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-18 22:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.17%EV -10.20%E -5.20%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.21%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -6.78%E -1.70%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-18 22:15
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -8.37%E -4.18%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.36%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -7.95%E -2.01%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 16:09
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.02%EV -9.74%E -4.95%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.73%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -9.11%E -2.34%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-19 16:09
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.37%EV -10.66%E -5.47%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.14%EV -7.36%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.49%EV -10.28%E -2.67%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-19 16:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.77%EV -13.87%E -7.38%K -15.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.29%EV -15.08%E -5.48%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.94%EV -12.61%E -3.36%K -4.58%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-18 22:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.34%EV -12.49%E -6.54%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.93%EV -13.54%E -4.83%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.73%EV -14.94%E -4.09%K -5.64%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-19 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-03-19 16:39
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%3.4%2026-03-19 10:29
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%4.3%2026-03-18 08:00
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%4.8%2026-03-19 16:30
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-19 16:29
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-03-19 16:29
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-03-18 08:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-03-18 08:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-03-18 08:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-03-18 09:10
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-03-18 09:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-03-18 09:10
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-03-18 09:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%8.1%2026-03-18 22:15
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%8.4%2026-03-19 16:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 55.74%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.26%10.7%2026-03-19 17:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 55.74%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.26%10.7%2026-03-19 17:15