The School of Odds
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Malmö Redhawks v Djurgårdens IF

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 14:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmö Redhawks (Local)

Prediction 47.35%2.11fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.36%47.49%47.35%48.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.961.952.0554.35%51.13%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Djurgårdens IF (Visit)

Prediction 29.86%3.35fair odd
EV +0.037%
Edge +0.011%
Kelly +0.016%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.74%29.81%29.86%31.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.173.253.3536.36%31.53%30.77%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.79%4.39fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.464%
Kelly -0.604%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.61%22.70%22.79%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.084.104.3027.40%24.53%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malmö Redhawks (Local): 47.35%; Djurgårdens IF (Visit): 29.86%; Draw: 22.79%. For Djurgårdens IF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.349. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.350, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.037%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.62%EV -2.94%E -1.43%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.14%EV +0.037%E +0.011%K +0.016%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.24%EV -4.27%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.4%2026-03-21 14:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV -4.36%E -2.16%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV +0.037%E +0.011%K +0.016%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -4.27%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-21 14:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV -4.36%E -2.16%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV +0.037%E +0.011%K +0.016%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -4.27%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-21 14:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.79%EV -7.20%E -3.67%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.98%EV -1.46%E -0.441%K -0.633%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -1.99%E -0.464%K -0.604%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 14:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.14%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.74%EV -1.46%E -0.441%K -0.633%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 14:14
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.28%EV -5.78%E -2.91%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.38%EV -2.35%E -0.719%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.34%EV -1.99%E -0.464%K -0.604%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 14:10
Unibet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.05%EV -7.20%E -3.67%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -2.95%E -0.907%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 14:14
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -2.95%E -0.907%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 14:14
Grosvenor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -2.95%E -0.907%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 14:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -2.95%E -0.907%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 14:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.08%EV -4.36%E -2.16%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -4.44%E -1.39%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -6.55%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 14:14
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -9.57%E -5.01%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.44%E -1.39%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 14:14
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.24%EV -10.99%E -5.85%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.79%EV -5.93%E -1.88%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -9.97%E -2.52%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-21 14:14
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.80%EV -5.31%E -2.65%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.81%EV -6.23%E -1.99%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-21 14:15
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.41%E -3.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -4.27%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-21 14:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.17%EV -9.10%E -4.74%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.19%EV -10.41%E -3.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-21 14:14
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.37%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.14%EV -10.41%E -3.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.49%EV -12.25%E -3.18%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-21 14:13
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.36%EV -11.46%E -6.13%K -13.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.89%EV -13.40%E -4.62%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.75%EV -16.81%E -4.61%K -6.34%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-21 14:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 46.97%EV -12.88%E -7.00%K -15.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.43%EV -17.88%E -6.50%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.61%EV -8.83%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-21 14:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-03-21 14:14
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%3.2%2026-03-21 14:14
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%4.2%2026-03-21 14:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%4.9%2026-03-21 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%4.9%2026-03-21 14:14
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%5.1%2026-03-21 14:14
Betsson🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%5.4%2026-03-21 14:13
NordicBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%5.4%2026-03-21 14:14
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%5.6%2026-03-21 14:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%5.6%2026-03-21 14:13
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%5.6%2026-03-21 14:13
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 59.01%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.99%7.9%2026-03-21 14:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%8.1%2026-03-21 14:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%8.8%2026-03-21 14:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%8.8%2026-03-21 14:14
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%8.8%2026-03-21 14:14
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%8.8%2026-03-21 14:14