The School of Odds
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Malmö Redhawks v Brynäs IF

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:15 UTC

Final: Malmö Redhawks 1–0 Brynäs IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmö Redhawks (Local)

Prediction 42.52%2.35fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%42.60%42.31%43.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.222.202.2745.45%44.95%45.45%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brynäs IF (Visit)

Prediction 57.48%1.74fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.41%57.40%57.69%58.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.641.651.7063.69%60.94%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malmö Redhawks (Local): 42.52%; Brynäs IF (Visit): 57.48%. For Brynäs IF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.70, with an expected value of -2.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.09%EV -3.49%E -1.54%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-03 13:05
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.34%E -1.93%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 12:30
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.34%E -1.93%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 12:25
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.34%E -1.93%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.88%E -4.25%K -11.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 01:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -4.34%E -1.93%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 01:15
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.28%E -1.34%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-03 12:25
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 01:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 01:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 01:05
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.03%E -5.02%K -13.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 06:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.03%E -5.02%K -13.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 06:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.1%2026-10-03 13:10
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%6.5%2026-10-03 01:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 44.83%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.17%7.2%2026-10-03 13:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 44.83%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.17%7.2%2026-10-03 13:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.32%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.91%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.77%3.3%2026-10-03 12:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.32%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.91%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.77%3.3%2026-10-03 12:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.32%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.91%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.77%3.3%2026-10-03 12:15
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.94%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%4.4%2026-10-02 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%4.6%2026-10-03 12:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.41%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%5.6%2026-10-03 04:20
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.17%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%5.6%2026-10-03 04:20
1xBet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.76%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%6.4%2026-10-03 13:03
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%6.7%2026-10-03 12:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.54%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%6.7%2026-10-03 13:00
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%6.9%2026-10-03 12:15
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%6.9%2026-10-03 12:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%6.9%2026-10-03 12:15
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%10.2%2026-10-03 12:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.60%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.43%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%11.0%2026-10-03 04:20
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.15%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.06%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%12.5%2026-10-03 12:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.57%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.26%15.2%2026-10-03 04:18
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 31.41%1.83I 54.64%NM 45.48%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.12%20.2%2026-10-03 04:20