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Luleå HF v Skellefteå AIK

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 13:25 UTC

Final: Luleå HF 1–3 Skellefteå AIK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luleå HF (Local)

Prediction 36.98%2.70fair odd
EV -0.164%
Edge -0.061%
Kelly -0.096%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.75%36.82%36.98%37.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.582.632.7042.55%38.71%38.02%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Skellefteå AIK (Visit)

Prediction 38.87%2.57fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.86%39.10%38.87%40.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.342.352.5046.51%42.74%42.55%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.15%4.14fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.537%
Kelly -0.713%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.59%24.08%24.15%25.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.863.904.0528.17%25.89%25.64%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luleå HF (Local): 36.98%; Skellefteå AIK (Visit): 38.87%; Draw: 24.15%. For Luleå HF (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.704. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.700, with an expected value of -0.164%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.89%EV -0.164%E -0.061%K -0.096%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.88%EV -5.55%E -2.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV -3.38%E -0.846%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 12:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.89%EV -0.164%E -0.061%K -0.096%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.88%EV -5.55%E -2.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV -3.38%E -0.846%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 13:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.89%EV -0.164%E -0.061%K -0.096%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.88%EV -5.55%E -2.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV -3.38%E -0.846%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 12:30
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.54%EV -0.534%E -0.198%K -0.316%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.86%EV -9.05%E -3.87%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.61%EV -2.18%E -0.537%K -0.713%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 12:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.54%EV -0.534%E -0.198%K -0.316%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.86%EV -9.05%E -3.87%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.61%EV -2.18%E -0.537%K -0.713%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 12:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -2.01%E -0.759%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.11%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -3.38%E -0.846%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 13:10
Coolbet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.50%EV -2.75%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.50%EV -5.55%E -2.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.00%EV -3.38%E -0.846%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 09:00
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.80%EV -2.75%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -8.66%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.80%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 12:30
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.80%EV -2.75%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -8.66%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.80%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 12:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.80%EV -2.75%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -8.66%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.80%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 12:30
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.80%EV -2.75%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -8.66%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.80%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 12:29
Everygame🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -3.86%E -1.49%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -12.54%E -5.58%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -13.04%E -3.62%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-11 12:29
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -5.71%E -2.24%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.01%EV -10.60%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -7.01%E -1.82%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 13:10
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.85%EV -5.71%E -2.24%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.09%EV -11.38%E -4.99%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -8.21%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-11 13:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%EV -7.56%E -3.02%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%EV -2.83%E -1.13%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.80%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 13:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.94%EV -8.30%E -3.35%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.97%EV -13.32%E -5.97%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.09%EV -10.63%E -2.87%K -3.94%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-11 12:29
Betway🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.39%EV -9.41%E -3.84%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.17%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -9.42%E -2.51%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 13:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -9.41%E -3.84%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -12.54%E -5.58%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -8.21%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-11 04:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.98%EV -9.41%E -3.84%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.18%EV -12.54%E -5.58%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.83%EV -14.25%E -4.01%K -5.59%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-11 04:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.42%EV -13.11%E -5.58%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.81%EV -16.43%E -7.64%K -14.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.77%EV -13.04%E -3.62%K -5.02%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-11 04:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.1%2026-04-11 13:15
Pinnacle🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%4.5%2026-04-11 12:30
DraftKings🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%4.6%2026-04-11 12:50
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%4.6%2026-04-11 12:29
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%5.5%2026-04-11 12:30
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%5.5%2026-04-11 12:29
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-04-10 03:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-04-10 03:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-04-10 03:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-04-10 05:34
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-04-10 05:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-04-10 05:35
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-04-10 05:35
Smarkets◎1.91I 52.36%NM 48.24%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.76%8.5%2026-04-11 04:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 43.73%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.27%13.2%2026-04-11 13:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 43.58%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.42%13.6%2026-04-11 13:15