The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Luleå HF v Rögle BK

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luleå HF (Local)

Prediction 58.33%1.71fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -3.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%58.36%58.23%59.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.611.6763.69%61.69%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rögle BK (Visit)

Prediction 41.67%2.40fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.86%41.64%41.77%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.272.302.3345.45%44.04%43.48%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luleå HF (Local): 58.33%; Rögle BK (Visit): 41.67%. For Luleå HF (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -2.59%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.59%E -1.55%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.16%E -1.81%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 13:40
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.16%E -1.81%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 06:28
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.24%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 17:35
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.24%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 17:35
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -6.09%E -3.78%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -2.91%E -1.25%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 12:15
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.09%E -3.78%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.16%E -1.81%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-12 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.09%E -3.78%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.16%E -1.81%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-12 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.09%E -3.78%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.16%E -1.81%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-12 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.67%E -4.17%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-11 13:45
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.67%E -4.17%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-11 13:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.42%E -5.37%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.24%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-12 13:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-03-12 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%3.0%2026-03-12 17:55
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%8.0%2026-03-12 13:40
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 41.82%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.18%10.2%2026-03-12 17:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.06%3.2%2026-03-12 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.06%3.2%2026-03-12 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.06%3.2%2026-03-12 16:20
Coolbet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.58%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.90%4.0%2026-03-12 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.44%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%4.8%2026-03-12 16:20
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.44%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%5.0%2026-03-12 13:40
1xBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.34%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%6.3%2026-03-12 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.58%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%6.8%2026-03-12 13:40
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%6.9%2026-03-12 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%6.9%2026-03-12 16:20
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%6.9%2026-03-12 16:20
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%6.9%2026-03-12 16:20
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.53%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.29%8.7%2026-03-12 16:20
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.95%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%9.5%2026-03-12 16:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.04%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%10.8%2026-03-12 13:40
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.41%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%11.5%2026-03-12 12:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.44%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.45%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.11%15.2%2026-03-12 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.88%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.81%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.31%15.9%2026-03-12 13:40