The School of Odds
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Luleå HF v Rögle BK

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:00 UTC

Final: Luleå HF 4–2 Rögle BK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luleå HF (Local)

Prediction 53.01%1.89fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -4.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.60%52.98%53.16%57.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.741.791.8262.11%57.61%56.02%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rögle BK (Visit)

Prediction 46.99%2.13fair odd
EV +3.37%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +2.81%
Growth +0.095%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.26%47.02%46.84%47.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.082.032.2050.00%48.10%49.26%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luleå HF (Local): 53.01%; Rögle BK (Visit): 46.99%. For Rögle BK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.37%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -14.12%E -8.72%K -22.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +3.37%E +1.53%K +2.81%G +0.095%7.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -14.12%E -8.72%K -22.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +3.37%E +1.53%K +2.81%G +0.095%7.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -14.65%E -9.10%K -24.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV +3.37%E +1.53%K +2.81%G +0.095%7.6%2026-09-19 14:01
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -14.65%E -9.10%K -24.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV +3.37%E +1.53%K +2.81%G +0.095%7.6%2026-09-19 14:01
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.58%E -2.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.67%E -1.79%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-19 14:56
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -5.11%E -2.85%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -4.14%E -2.03%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-19 14:01
DraftKings🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.52%E -1.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.08%E -2.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-19 14:01
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.64%E -3.17%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -5.08%E -2.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-19 15:49
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.64%E -3.17%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -5.08%E -2.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-19 15:49
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.58%E -2.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 01:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.58%E -2.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 01:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.58%E -2.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 01:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.40%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.60%1.2%2026-09-19 15:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.40%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.60%1.2%2026-09-19 15:54
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%3.9%2026-09-19 15:54
Smarkets◎1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%8.0%2026-09-19 14:56

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.53%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%2.8%2026-09-19 15:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.53%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%2.8%2026-09-19 15:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.53%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%2.8%2026-09-19 15:49
Coolbet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.95%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.45%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.60%4.1%2026-09-19 14:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.52%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%4.7%2026-09-19 15:49
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%4.8%2026-09-19 14:56
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.26%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%6.3%2026-09-19 15:54
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%6.6%2026-09-19 15:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%6.6%2026-09-19 15:49
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%6.6%2026-09-19 15:49
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%6.6%2026-09-19 15:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.47%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.43%6.7%2026-09-19 15:49
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%10.1%2026-09-19 15:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.76%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.21%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.02%11.4%2026-09-19 14:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.51%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%12.6%2026-09-19 15:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.24%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.41%15.5%2026-09-19 14:56
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.84%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.16%16.6%2026-09-19 14:55