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Luleå HF v Örebro HK

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 14:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luleå HF (Local)

Prediction 52.24%1.91fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.947%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.27%52.11%52.24%53.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.781.771.8858.82%56.32%56.50%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Örebro HK (Visit)

Prediction 25.31%3.95fair odd
EV +3.78%
Edge +0.922%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.70%25.46%25.31%26.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.783.834.1030.77%26.46%26.14%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.44%4.46fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.545%
Kelly -0.707%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.96%22.44%22.44%23.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.144.204.3526.67%24.13%23.81%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luleå HF (Local): 52.24%; Örebro HK (Visit): 25.31%; Draw: 22.44%. For Örebro HK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.78%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.42%EV -4.39%E -2.40%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.84%EV +3.78%E +0.922%K +1.22%G +0.046%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.73%EV -3.49%E -0.812%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-21 14:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.69%EV -5.44%E -3.00%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.70%EV +3.78%E +0.922%K +1.22%G +0.046%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60%EV -3.49%E -0.812%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-21 14:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.69%EV -5.44%E -3.00%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.70%EV +3.78%E +0.922%K +1.22%G +0.046%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60%EV -3.49%E -0.812%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-21 14:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -7.00%E -3.94%K -8.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.88%EV +1.25%E +0.312%K +0.416%G +0.005%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47%EV -4.61%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 14:09
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -8.05%E -4.57%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -1.28%E -0.329%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.74%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 14:09
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -8.05%E -4.57%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -1.28%E -0.329%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.74%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 14:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -8.05%E -4.57%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -1.28%E -0.329%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.74%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 14:09
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%EV -8.05%E -4.57%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -1.28%E -0.329%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.74%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 14:10
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -10.14%E -5.90%K -14.08%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -2.55%E -0.662%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -7.98%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 14:09
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -11.18%E -6.58%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -3.82%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -10.23%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-21 14:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.77%EV -5.44%E -3.00%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.27%EV -4.32%E -1.14%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.96%EV -2.37%E -0.545%K -0.707%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 13:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -4.39%E -2.40%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -5.08%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.74%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 10:24
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.53%EV -5.96%E -3.31%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.08%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -4.61%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-20 07:19
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.13%EV -1.78%E -0.947%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.98%EV -6.35%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.89%EV -5.74%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-20 21:50
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.27%EV -5.96%E -3.31%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -12.67%E -3.67%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -13.59%E -3.53%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-21 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.85%EV -9.09%E -5.23%K -12.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -12.67%E -3.67%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -7.98%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-21 09:24
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 50.85%EV -10.66%E -6.24%K -15.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.96%EV -15.21%E -4.54%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.19%EV -15.84%E -4.22%K -5.76%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-21 14:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.90%EV -11.18%E -6.58%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.62%EV -17.74%E -5.46%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.48%EV -13.59%E -3.53%K -4.77%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-21 09:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.02%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.98%1.4%2026-03-21 14:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 62.62%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.38%3.7%2026-03-21 14:10
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%3.9%2026-03-21 14:09
theScore Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%4.0%2026-03-21 12:00
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%4.3%2026-03-21 13:54
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-03-21 09:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-03-21 12:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-03-21 12:00
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.66%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.34%5.2%2026-03-21 13:54
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-03-21 13:54
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%5.3%2026-03-21 13:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%7.5%2026-03-20 02:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-03-20 07:20
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-03-20 07:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-03-20 07:20
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-03-20 07:18
Smarkets◎1.46I 68.49%NM 63.13%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%8.5%2026-03-21 09:25