The School of Odds
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Luleå HF v Malmö Redhawks

Kickoff: 2026-10-08 17:00 UTC

Final: Luleå HF 2–3 Malmö Redhawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luleå HF (Local)

Prediction 52.80%1.89fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.962%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.48%52.59%52.80%53.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.761.761.8661.73%56.93%56.82%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Malmö Redhawks (Visit)

Prediction 25.52%3.92fair odd
EV +0.789%
Edge +0.200%
Kelly +0.268%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.52%25.68%25.52%26.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.683.753.9532.79%27.17%26.70%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.68%4.61fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -0.540%
Kelly -0.694%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.38%21.73%21.68%22.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.214.224.5027.78%23.77%23.67%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luleå HF (Local): 52.80%; Malmö Redhawks (Visit): 25.52%; Draw: 21.68%. For Malmö Redhawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.92. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.789%.

14 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.22%EV -3.90%E -2.14%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%EV +0.789%E +0.200%K +0.268%G +0.002%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV -5.68%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-03 20:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.22%EV -3.90%E -2.14%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%EV +0.789%E +0.200%K +0.268%G +0.002%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV -5.68%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-03 20:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.22%EV -3.90%E -2.14%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%EV +0.789%E +0.200%K +0.268%G +0.002%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV -5.68%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-03 20:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.16%EV -5.49%E -3.06%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.71%EV -1.76%E -0.458%K -0.618%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -6.77%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 20:35
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -7.07%E -4.02%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -3.04%E -0.800%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -8.93%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 20:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -7.07%E -4.02%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -3.04%E -0.800%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -8.93%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 20:30
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -7.07%E -4.02%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -3.04%E -0.800%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -8.93%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 20:30
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -7.07%E -4.02%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -3.04%E -0.800%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -8.93%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 20:30
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.53%EV -4.96%E -2.75%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -4.31%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 09:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.27%EV -7.07%E -4.02%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.07%EV -4.57%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.65%EV -6.12%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-04 08:48
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -6.01%E -3.38%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.37%EV -5.33%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -6.12%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 08:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.96%E -2.75%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -5.59%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -4.60%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 08:05
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.36%EV -10.24%E -6.02%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -5.59%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -11.10%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-03 20:34
Coolbet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -1.79%E -0.962%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.77%EV -8.14%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.42%EV -2.43%E -0.540%K -0.694%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-04 11:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -11.82%E -7.08%K -17.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -8.14%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -13.27%E -3.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-03 20:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.21%EV -9.18%E -5.34%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -13.24%E -3.90%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -8.93%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-04 08:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 51.46%EV -14.46%E -8.93%K -23.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.89%EV -20.90%E -6.74%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.65%EV -16.52%E -4.29%K -5.80%G +0.000%20.0%2026-10-04 08:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 50.48%EV -14.46%E -8.93%K -23.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 26.81%EV -22.18%E -7.27%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 22.71%EV -21.94%E -6.10%K -8.44%G +0.000%22.3%2026-10-04 08:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (14)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%4.1%2026-10-04 20:30
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-04 11:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-04 08:10
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-04 08:10
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-04 12:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-04 08:09
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-04 08:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%7.5%2026-10-05 07:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-10-04 16:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 11:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 11:01