Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luleå HF v HV71

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 13:15 UTC

Final: Luleå HF 5–2 HV71

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

48%

30%

22%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luleå HF (Local)

Prediction 48.16%2.08fair odd

EV -2.73%

Edge -1.35%

Kelly -2.67%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.61%48.05%48.16%50.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.781.901.892.0256.18%52.58%52.91%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HV71 (Visit)

Prediction 29.58%3.38fair odd

EV +3.53%

Edge +1.01%

Kelly +1.41%

Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.56%29.71%29.58%30.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.903.273.303.5034.48%30.54%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.26%4.49fair odd

EV -2.04%

Edge -0.463%

Kelly -0.600%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.86%22.24%22.26%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.704.214.254.4027.03%23.76%23.53%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luleå HF (Local): 48.16%; HV71 (Visit): 29.58%; Draw: 22.26%. For HV71 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.53%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
ATG (SE)🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 49.99%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.85%EV +3.53%E +1.01%K +1.41%G +0.050%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.16%EV -2.04%E -0.463%K -0.600%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-10-17 12:25
Svenska Spel🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.25%EV -7.06%E -3.66%K -7.59%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.71%EV +3.53%E +1.01%K +1.41%G +0.050%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%EV -2.04%E -0.463%K -0.600%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-10-17 12:25
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.25%EV -7.06%E -3.66%K -7.59%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.71%EV +3.53%E +1.01%K +1.41%G +0.050%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%EV -2.04%E -0.463%K -0.600%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-10-17 12:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.89I 52.91%NM 50.45%EV -8.99%E -4.75%K -10.10%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.64%EV +2.05%E +0.595%K +0.837%G +0.017%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.92%EV -3.15%E -0.725%K -0.941%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-17 12:25
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.25%EV -9.95%E -5.32%K -11.43%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV +0.573%E +0.168%K +0.239%G +0.001%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -5.38%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-17 12:25
Casumo🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.25%EV -9.95%E -5.32%K -11.43%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV +0.573%E +0.168%K +0.239%G +0.001%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -5.38%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-17 12:25
Unibet🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.25%EV -9.95%E -5.32%K -11.43%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV +0.573%E +0.168%K +0.239%G +0.001%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -5.38%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-17 12:25
Grosvenor🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.25%EV -9.95%E -5.32%K -11.43%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV +0.573%E +0.168%K +0.239%G +0.001%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.11%EV -5.38%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-17 12:25
TABtouch🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 50.25%EV -12.84%E -7.09%K -15.85%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -2.39%E -0.723%K -1.04%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -8.72%E -2.13%K -2.81%G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-10-17 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.19%EV -5.13%E -2.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.21%EV -3.86%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -6.49%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-17 12:50
Betway🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.35%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV -5.38%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-10-17 12:50
Marathon Bet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.05%EV -6.10%E -3.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%	3.16I 31.65%NM 29.65%EV -6.53%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -6.49%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-17 13:05
Coolbet🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.61%EV -2.73%E -1.35%K -2.67%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.53%EV -6.82%E -2.17%K -3.17%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.86%EV -2.04%E -0.463%K -0.600%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-17 12:44
1xBet🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -5.13%E -2.61%K -5.29%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.86%EV -6.82%E -2.17%K -3.17%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -6.49%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-17 13:10
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 48.19%EV -9.47%E -5.04%K -10.76%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.71%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -8.72%E -2.13%K -2.81%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-10-17 12:55
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 47.97%EV -14.28%E -8.02%K -18.31%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 28.95%EV -12.74%E -4.32%K -6.53%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 23.08%EV -17.62%E -4.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%	17.1%	2026-10-17 12:20
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 47.61%EV -12.36%E -6.79%K -15.07%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 29.88%EV -14.22%E -4.90%K -7.48%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 22.51%EV -14.28%E -3.71%K -5.01%G +0.000%	15.4%	2026-10-17 12:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.64I 60.98%NM 60.19%	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.81%	1.3%	2026-10-17 13:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%	3.0%	2026-10-17 13:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%	2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%	3.8%	2026-10-17 12:55
DraftKings🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%	2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%	4.2%	2026-10-17 12:40
Kalshi◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%	4.9%	2026-10-17 13:05
Pinnacle🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%	5.0%	2026-10-17 12:50
888sport🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	5.7%	2026-10-17 13:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	5.7%	2026-10-17 13:10
888sport (SE)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	5.7%	2026-10-17 13:10
Betsson🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%	6.0%	2026-10-17 12:50
NordicBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%	6.0%	2026-10-17 12:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%	7.6%	2026-10-16 08:00
Neds🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%	7.6%	2026-10-16 08:00
Coral🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%	7.6%	2026-10-16 08:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%	7.6%	2026-10-16 08:09
Smarkets◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%	8.0%	2026-10-17 13:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%	8.1%	2026-10-17 12:50