The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Luleå HF v Frölunda HC

Kickoff: 2026-09-24 17:01 UTC

Final: Luleå HF 3–7 Frölunda HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luleå HF (Local)

Prediction 43.21%2.31fair odd
EV +0.245%
Edge +0.106%
Kelly +0.186%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.74%43.29%43.21%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.192.232.3250.25%45.74%44.94%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frölunda HC (Visit)

Prediction 33.47%2.99fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -0.896%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.21%33.40%33.47%34.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.722.732.9139.22%36.70%36.70%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.32%4.29fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.42%23.32%23.32%24.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.964.004.1028.57%25.26%25.00%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luleå HF (Local): 43.21%; Frölunda HC (Visit): 33.47%; Draw: 23.32%. For Luleå HF (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.245%.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.76%EV +0.245%E +0.106%K +0.186%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.60%EV -6.29%E -2.25%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -4.38%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-24 15:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.76%EV +0.245%E +0.106%K +0.186%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.60%EV -6.29%E -2.25%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -4.38%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-24 15:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.76%EV +0.245%E +0.106%K +0.186%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.60%EV -6.29%E -2.25%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -4.38%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-24 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.93%EV -1.48%E -0.651%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.76%EV -7.96%E -2.90%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -4.38%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 12:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.00%EV -2.78%E -1.24%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.96%E -2.90%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-24 16:50
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -2.78%E -1.24%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.64%E -3.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-24 15:10
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -2.78%E -1.24%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.64%E -3.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-24 15:10
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -2.78%E -1.24%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.64%E -3.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-24 15:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -2.78%E -1.24%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.64%E -3.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-24 15:10
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -4.94%E -2.25%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -6.29%E -2.25%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-24 17:00
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.86%EV -6.24%E -2.87%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.54%EV -11.98%E -4.55%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -10.21%E -2.65%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-24 15:10
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.16%EV -7.96%E -3.74%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.32%EV -2.61%E -0.896%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 16:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.85%EV -8.40%E -3.96%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.80%EV -14.66%E -5.75%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -11.37%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-24 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.64%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.21%EV -2.61%E -0.896%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -5.54%E -1.37%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-24 16:55
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -7.96%E -2.90%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-24 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -11.31%E -4.27%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-24 17:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.88%EV -13.58%E -6.79%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.63%EV -14.66%E -5.75%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.49%EV -14.87%E -4.07%K -5.61%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-24 17:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 42.85%EV -14.01%E -7.04%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.79%EV -12.98%E -4.99%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.36%EV -18.37%E -5.25%K -7.35%G +0.000%17.3%2026-09-24 16:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%4.0%2026-09-24 17:00
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-09-24 16:50
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-09-24 16:54
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-09-24 16:55
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-22 20:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-22 20:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-22 20:40
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%6.1%2026-09-24 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-09-24 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-09-23 08:44
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-09-23 08:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-09-23 08:45
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-09-23 08:45
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%8.8%2026-09-24 17:00
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 53.65%1.47I 68.03%NM 46.35%46.8%2026-09-24 17:00