The School of Odds
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Luleå HF v Frölunda HC

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 17:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luleå HF (Local)

Prediction 47.34%2.11fair odd
EV +0.358%
Edge +0.169%
Kelly +0.320%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.08%47.02%47.37%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.981.982.1252.36%50.54%50.51%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frölunda HC (Visit)

Prediction 52.66%1.90fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -5.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%52.98%52.63%54.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.791.801.8257.80%55.77%55.56%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luleå HF (Local): 47.34%; Frölunda HC (Visit): 52.66%. For Luleå HF (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.358%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV +0.358%E +0.169%K +0.320%G +0.001%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -8.37%E -4.81%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-02 16:59
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.96%E -1.44%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.21%E -2.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-02 17:00
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.32%E -2.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.21%E -2.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-02 16:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.32%E -2.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.21%E -2.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-02 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.32%E -2.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.21%E -2.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-02 16:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.32%E -2.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.90%E -5.14%K -12.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-02 17:00
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.27%E -3.17%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.16%E -2.28%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-02 17:00
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.27%E -3.17%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.16%E -2.28%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-02 17:00
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.69%E -3.94%K -8.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.21%E -2.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-02 17:00
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.58%E -5.02%K -10.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.21%E -2.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.58%E -5.02%K -10.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.21%E -2.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 16:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.58%E -5.02%K -10.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.21%E -2.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 17:00
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.58%E -5.02%K -10.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.21%E -2.89%K -6.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.97%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.03%1.4%2026-04-02 17:00
Smarkets◎1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%6.8%2026-04-02 17:00
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 47.73%1.47I 68.03%NM 52.27%30.1%2026-04-02 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-02 17:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.02%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.26%2.8%2026-04-02 17:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.02%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.26%2.8%2026-04-02 17:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.02%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.26%2.8%2026-04-02 17:00
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.67%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.63%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.70%3.8%2026-04-02 16:59
1xBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.99%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.96%4.3%2026-04-02 16:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.90%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.49%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.61%4.6%2026-04-02 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.73%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.14%4.7%2026-04-02 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.80%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.87%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%5.4%2026-04-02 17:00
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%6.3%2026-04-02 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%6.3%2026-04-02 17:00
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%6.3%2026-04-02 17:00
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%6.3%2026-04-02 17:00
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%8.6%2026-04-02 17:00
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.86%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.76%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%9.4%2026-04-02 17:00
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%10.1%2026-04-02 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%10.8%2026-04-02 17:00
Everygame🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%11.3%2026-04-02 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.94%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.96%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.10%12.2%2026-04-02 17:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%15.1%2026-04-02 16:58
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.93%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.11%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.96%16.0%2026-04-02 17:00