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Luleå HF v Frölunda HC

Kickoff: 2026-03-27 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luleå HF (Local)

Prediction 35.39%2.83fair odd
EV -0.894%
Edge -0.319%
Kelly -0.497%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.54%35.27%35.39%37.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.552.552.8041.67%39.16%39.22%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frölunda HC (Visit)

Prediction 40.08%2.49fair odd
EV +2.21%
Edge +0.867%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.36%40.39%40.08%41.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.362.402.5546.51%42.28%41.75%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.52%4.08fair odd
EV -0.685%
Edge -0.169%
Kelly -0.224%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.35%24.34%24.52%24.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.843.904.0528.17%26.02%25.64%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luleå HF (Local): 35.39%; Frölunda HC (Visit): 40.08%; Draw: 24.52%. For Frölunda HC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.21%.

14 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 37.19%EV -6.91%E -2.63%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.36%EV +2.21%E +0.867%K +1.43%G +0.032%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.45%EV -1.91%E -0.478%K -0.637%G +0.000%2.2%2026-03-27 17:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.91%EV -6.91%E -2.63%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83%EV +0.207%E +0.083%K +0.138%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%EV -1.91%E -0.478%K -0.637%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-27 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.91%EV -6.91%E -2.63%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83%EV +0.207%E +0.083%K +0.138%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%EV -1.91%E -0.478%K -0.637%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-27 17:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.77%EV -7.97%E -3.07%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.02%EV -1.80%E -0.734%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.20%EV -3.14%E -0.794%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-27 18:00
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -9.74%E -3.82%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -2.60%E -1.07%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-27 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -9.74%E -3.82%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -2.60%E -1.07%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-27 17:59
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -9.74%E -3.82%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -2.60%E -1.07%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-27 18:00
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -9.74%E -3.82%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -2.60%E -1.07%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-27 18:00
1xBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.75%EV -7.97%E -3.07%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.65%EV -3.40%E -1.41%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.59%EV -0.685%E -0.169%K -0.224%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-27 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.75%EV -7.97%E -3.07%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.65%EV -3.40%E -1.41%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.59%EV -0.685%E -0.169%K -0.224%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-27 18:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.38%EV -4.43%E -1.64%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.13%EV -4.60%E -1.93%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.49%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-27 18:00
LeoVegas🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -12.22%E -4.93%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.67%EV -4.60%E -1.93%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-27 18:00
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.21%EV -13.28%E -5.42%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -5.81%E -2.47%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-27 17:59
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -7.97%E -3.07%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.81%E -3.40%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-27 18:00
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -11.51%E -4.61%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -7.81%E -3.40%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -11.72%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-27 17:53
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -0.894%E -0.319%K -0.497%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -9.81%E -4.36%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-27 18:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -13.28%E -5.42%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.96%EV -9.81%E -4.36%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.35%EV -5.59%E -1.45%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-27 17:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.14%EV -15.05%E -6.27%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.43%EV -11.82%E -5.37%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.43%EV -12.95%E -3.65%K -5.08%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-27 18:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.14%EV -15.05%E -6.27%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.43%EV -11.82%E -5.37%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.43%EV -12.95%E -3.65%K -5.08%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-27 17:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.93%EV -15.05%E -6.27%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.11%EV -13.82%E -6.43%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.96%EV -11.72%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-27 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (14)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.1%2026-03-27 18:00
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%4.3%2026-03-27 18:00
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%4.6%2026-03-27 17:59
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%4.7%2026-03-27 18:00
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-03-27 17:59
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-03-27 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%5.4%2026-03-27 18:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-03-27 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-03-27 17:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 50.27%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.73%7.0%2026-03-27 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%7.8%2026-03-27 18:00
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-03-27 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%8.7%2026-03-27 17:59
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%8.7%2026-03-27 18:00