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Luleå HF v Brynäs IF

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 14:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luleå HF (Local)

Prediction 43.78%2.28fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.93%43.69%43.78%44.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.132.142.2050.51%46.89%46.73%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brynäs IF (Visit)

Prediction 33.40%2.99fair odd
EV -4.80%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.90%33.34%33.40%34.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.732.702.8539.22%36.59%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.82%4.38fair odd
EV +4.98%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.12%22.97%22.82%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.234.304.6027.03%23.62%23.26%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luleå HF (Local): 43.78%; Brynäs IF (Visit): 33.40%; Draw: 22.82%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.38. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.98%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.17%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.71%EV -6.47%E -2.31%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%EV +4.98%E +1.08%K +1.38%G +0.069%2.9%2026-02-21 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.17%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.71%EV -6.47%E -2.31%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%EV +4.98%E +1.08%K +1.38%G +0.069%2.9%2026-02-21 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.17%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.71%EV -6.47%E -2.31%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%EV +4.98%E +1.08%K +1.38%G +0.069%2.9%2026-02-21 12:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.03%EV -5.01%E -2.31%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.74%EV -8.14%E -2.96%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%EV +2.70%E +0.599%K +0.771%G +0.021%4.7%2026-02-21 12:50
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.88%EV -6.32%E -2.95%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.81%E -3.63%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +0.415%E +0.094%K +0.122%G +0.001%6.5%2026-02-21 12:50
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.88%EV -6.32%E -2.95%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.81%E -3.63%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +0.415%E +0.094%K +0.122%G +0.001%6.5%2026-02-21 12:50
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.88%EV -6.32%E -2.95%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.81%E -3.63%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +0.415%E +0.094%K +0.122%G +0.001%6.5%2026-02-21 12:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.88%EV -6.32%E -2.95%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.81%E -3.63%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV +0.415%E +0.094%K +0.122%G +0.001%6.5%2026-02-21 12:50
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -8.07%E -3.84%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.83%EV -11.48%E -4.33%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -0.726%E -0.167%K -0.217%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 12:50
TABtouch🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.08%EV -9.38%E -4.53%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.70%EV -12.15%E -4.62%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.22%EV -1.87%E -0.434%K -0.566%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-21 12:50
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.68%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.71%EV -4.80%E -1.68%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.61%EV -3.01%E -0.708%K -0.926%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-21 06:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.78%EV -4.57%E -2.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.49%EV -4.80%E -1.68%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -4.15%E -0.988%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-21 10:10
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.00%EV -6.32%E -2.95%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.80%E -1.68%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -6.43%E -1.57%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.23%EV -7.20%E -3.39%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.90%EV -4.80%E -1.68%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -6.43%E -1.57%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 14:10
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.07%EV -3.69%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.25%EV -4.80%E -1.68%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-21 10:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.26%E -5.00%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -11.48%E -4.33%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -8.71%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-21 10:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.53%EV -13.32%E -6.73%K -13.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.80%EV -14.82%E -5.81%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.68%EV -13.28%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000%16.0%2026-02-21 10:09
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.93%EV -5.88%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.02%EV -11.48%E -4.33%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -14.42%E -3.85%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-21 06:18
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.29%EV -12.45%E -6.22%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.30%EV -13.15%E -5.06%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.40%EV -15.56%E -4.21%K -5.76%G +0.000%15.5%2026-02-21 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50%1.2%2026-02-21 14:10
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.9%2026-02-21 08:30
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%4.0%2026-02-21 10:10
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%4.3%2026-02-21 06:55
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%4.9%2026-02-21 08:45
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%5.0%2026-02-21 10:07
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%5.1%2026-02-21 10:09
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%5.1%2026-02-21 10:10
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-02-20 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-02-20 12:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-02-20 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%5.7%2026-02-21 14:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-02-20 12:55
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-02-20 12:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-02-20 12:55
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%7.1%2026-02-20 12:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-02-21 06:55
Smarkets◎1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%8.0%2026-02-21 14:05