The School of Odds
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Linköping HC v IF Björklöven

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00 UTC

Final: Linköping HC 2–3 IF Björklöven

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Linköping HC (Local)

Prediction 61.26%1.63fair odd
EV +2.30%
Edge +1.38%
Kelly +3.44%
Growth +0.079%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%60.83%61.43%63.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.601.601.6766.67%62.65%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IF Björklöven (Visit)

Prediction 38.74%2.58fair odd
EV +1.11%
Edge +0.425%
Kelly +0.690%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.50%39.17%38.57%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.202.6145.45%43.25%45.45%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Linköping HC (Local): 61.26%; IF Björklöven (Visit): 38.74%. For Linköping HC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.67, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.30%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +2.30%E +1.38%K +3.44%G +0.079%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -14.77%E -6.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 15:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +2.30%E +1.38%K +3.44%G +0.079%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -14.77%E -6.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +2.30%E +1.38%K +3.44%G +0.079%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -14.77%E -6.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 15:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -1.98%E -1.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -14.77%E -6.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 15:25
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -1.98%E -1.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -14.77%E -6.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 15:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -1.98%E -1.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -14.77%E -6.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 15:25
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -1.98%E -1.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -14.77%E -6.71%K -12.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 15:25
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.21%E -2.03%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.80%E -3.28%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 15:45
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.21%E -2.03%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.80%E -3.28%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 15:45
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.82%E -2.43%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.15%E -1.26%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-03 15:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -3.82%E -2.43%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -12.84%E -5.70%K -10.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-03 15:21
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -5.66%E -3.67%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -1.60%E -0.630%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-03 15:45
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV -8.11%E -5.41%K -16.22%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV +1.11%E +0.425%K +0.690%G +0.008%5.0%2026-10-03 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%2.0%2026-10-03 15:51
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%5.2%2026-10-03 15:21
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%6.2%2026-10-03 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-10-03 15:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.53%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%3.1%2026-10-03 15:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.53%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%3.1%2026-10-03 15:21
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.53%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%3.1%2026-10-03 15:20
Coolbet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.02%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%4.0%2026-10-03 15:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%5.2%2026-10-03 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%5.9%2026-10-03 15:20
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.35%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%6.1%2026-10-03 15:20
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.82%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.02%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%6.2%2026-10-03 15:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.17%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.76%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%6.6%2026-10-03 15:51
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.44%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%7.0%2026-10-03 15:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%7.3%2026-10-03 15:20
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%7.3%2026-10-03 15:20
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.56%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%7.3%2026-10-03 15:20
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%10.3%2026-10-03 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%11.0%2026-10-03 15:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.77%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.97%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%13.2%2026-10-03 15:21
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.61%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.51%15.4%2026-10-03 15:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 47.17%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.44%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.39%17.1%2026-10-03 15:45