The School of Odds
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Linköping HC v Färjestad BK

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 13:15 UTC

Final: Linköping HC 2–4 Färjestad BK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Linköping HC (Local)

Prediction 25.54%3.92fair odd
EV +0.865%
Edge +0.219%
Kelly +0.293%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.42%25.78%25.54%26.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.713.753.9530.77%26.95%26.67%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Färjestad BK (Visit)

Prediction 52.37%1.91fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.92%52.23%52.37%53.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.771.781.8559.52%56.40%56.18%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.09%4.53fair odd
EV -0.577%
Edge -0.128%
Kelly -0.165%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.39%21.99%22.09%23.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.264.304.5027.03%23.45%23.26%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Linköping HC (Local): 25.54%; Färjestad BK (Visit): 52.37%; Draw: 22.09%. For Linköping HC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.92. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.865%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.78%EV +0.865%E +0.219%K +0.293%G +0.003%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.48%EV -4.16%E -2.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.75%EV -0.577%E -0.128%K -0.165%G +0.000%2.2%2026-10-17 12:09
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV +0.865%E +0.219%K +0.293%G +0.003%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.75%EV -5.21%E -2.88%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.62%EV -0.577%E -0.128%K -0.165%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-17 12:09
Svenska Spel🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV +0.865%E +0.219%K +0.293%G +0.003%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.75%EV -5.21%E -2.88%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.62%EV -0.577%E -0.128%K -0.165%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-17 12:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.53%EV -0.412%E -0.106%K -0.142%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.74%EV -6.78%E -3.81%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%EV -2.79%E -0.633%K -0.820%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-17 12:09
Unibet (NL)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -1.69%E -0.439%K -0.592%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.72%EV -8.35%E -4.77%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.00%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 12:09
Casumo🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -1.69%E -0.439%K -0.592%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.72%EV -8.35%E -4.77%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.00%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 12:09
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -1.69%E -0.439%K -0.592%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.72%EV -8.35%E -4.77%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.00%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 12:09
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -1.69%E -0.439%K -0.592%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.72%EV -8.35%E -4.77%K -11.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.00%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 12:09
Betway🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -4.24%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.53%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 09:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -4.24%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.53%EV -5.73%E -3.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 12:15
Coolbet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01%EV -5.52%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.60%EV -4.16%E -2.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.39%EV -0.577%E -0.128%K -0.165%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-17 12:40
TABtouch🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -5.52%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%EV -10.97%E -6.45%K -15.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -7.21%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 12:09
Marathon Bet🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.12%E -2.87%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.27%EV -4.16%E -2.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 12:40
1xBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -10.63%E -3.04%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.92%EV -3.11%E -1.68%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.17%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 12:45
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -11.90%E -3.45%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.85%EV -8.88%E -5.10%K -11.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -9.41%E -2.30%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-17 12:15
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 25.93%EV -15.73%E -4.77%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 50.94%EV -12.02%E -7.15%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.13%EV -18.25%E -4.93%K -6.76%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-17 12:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.54%EV -17.01%E -5.23%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.34%EV -12.02%E -7.15%K -17.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.12%EV -13.83%E -3.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-17 12:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65%1.8%2026-10-17 12:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.52%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.48%3.0%2026-10-17 13:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.52%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.48%3.0%2026-10-17 13:10
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%4.0%2026-10-17 12:55
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%4.3%2026-10-17 13:10
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.25%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.75%5.3%2026-10-17 12:20
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-10-17 09:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-10-17 09:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-10-17 09:00
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%5.9%2026-10-17 12:45
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%5.9%2026-10-17 12:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%7.5%2026-10-17 09:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-10-16 08:00
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-10-16 08:04
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-10-16 08:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%7.8%2026-10-16 08:15
Smarkets◎2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%8.2%2026-10-17 12:15