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Leksands IF v Örebro HK

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF (Local)

Prediction 34.61%2.89fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -2.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.27%35.07%34.61%37.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.592.552.7540.82%38.61%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Örebro HK (Visit)

Prediction 42.12%2.37fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.452%
Kelly +0.775%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.09%41.69%42.12%42.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.232.252.4048.78%44.85%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.27%4.30fair odd
EV +7.03%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +1.95%
Growth +0.137%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.99%23.24%23.27%23.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.244.304.6027.40%23.60%23.26%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leksands IF (Local): 34.61%; Örebro HK (Visit): 42.12%; Draw: 23.27%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.03%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.23%EV -10.00%E -3.85%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.72%EV -2.29%E -0.985%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.04%EV +7.03%E +1.53%K +1.95%G +0.137%3.3%2026-02-20 16:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.23%EV -10.00%E -3.85%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.72%EV -2.29%E -0.985%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.04%EV +7.03%E +1.53%K +1.95%G +0.137%3.3%2026-02-20 16:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.23%EV -10.00%E -3.85%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.72%EV -2.29%E -0.985%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.04%EV +7.03%E +1.53%K +1.95%G +0.137%3.3%2026-02-20 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.24%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.65%EV -3.97%E -1.74%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%EV +4.70%E +1.05%K +1.34%G +0.063%5.3%2026-02-20 16:49
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.98%EV -5.23%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV +4.70%E +1.05%K +1.34%G +0.063%5.9%2026-02-20 16:50
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.98%EV -5.23%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV +4.70%E +1.05%K +1.34%G +0.063%5.9%2026-02-20 16:50
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.98%EV -5.23%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV +4.70%E +1.05%K +1.34%G +0.063%5.9%2026-02-20 16:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.98%EV -5.23%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV +4.70%E +1.05%K +1.34%G +0.063%5.9%2026-02-20 16:45
LeoVegas🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.07%EV -14.16%E -5.71%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.14%EV +1.21%E +0.279%K +0.363%G +0.004%8.8%2026-02-20 16:45
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -15.20%E -6.20%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.72%EV -8.18%E -3.75%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.15%EV +0.051%E +0.012%K +0.016%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-20 16:49
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.00%EV -10.00%E -3.85%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.09%EV +1.08%E +0.452%K +0.775%G +0.008%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%EV -2.28%E -0.542%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-21 06:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.70%EV -4.81%E -1.75%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.03%EV -4.39%E -1.93%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%EV -4.60%E -1.12%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-21 16:35
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.36%EV -5.16%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.40%EV -6.50%E -2.93%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.24%EV -5.77%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.22%EV -5.16%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.62%EV -7.34%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -5.77%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 16:50
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.81%E -1.75%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.00%EV -5.23%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -6.93%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-21 16:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.42%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -9.45%E -4.39%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -6.93%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-21 16:35
Everygame🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -6.54%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.78%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -12.75%E -3.40%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-21 16:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.11%EV -15.20%E -6.20%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.96%EV -13.66%E -6.66%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.94%EV -12.75%E -3.40%K -4.63%G +0.000%16.3%2026-02-21 16:35
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.24%EV -15.20%E -6.20%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.11%EV -11.55%E -5.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.65%EV -15.07%E -4.13%K -5.69%G +0.000%15.8%2026-02-21 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54%1.5%2026-02-21 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.70%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30%2.0%2026-02-21 16:55
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%4.1%2026-02-21 16:35
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%4.3%2026-02-21 16:13
DraftKings🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%4.5%2026-02-21 16:05
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.82%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.18%4.8%2026-02-21 16:05
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-02-21 16:50
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-02-21 16:50
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-02-21 11:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-02-21 10:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-02-21 10:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-02-20 12:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-02-20 12:55
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-02-20 12:56
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-02-20 12:55
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%8.1%2026-02-21 16:35
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 47.21%1.69I 59.17%NM 52.79%12.1%2026-02-21 16:05