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Leksands IF v Luleå HF

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF (Local)

Prediction 27.73%3.61fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.440%
Kelly -0.613%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.20%27.76%27.73%28.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.383.453.5532.79%29.60%28.99%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luleå HF (Visit)

Prediction 49.58%2.02fair odd
EV -0.848%
Edge -0.424%
Kelly -0.848%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.40%49.56%49.58%50.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.891.902.0056.82%52.94%52.63%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.70%4.41fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -0.834%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.47%22.68%22.70%24.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.084.104.2526.67%24.50%24.39%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leksands IF (Local): 27.73%; Luleå HF (Visit): 49.58%; Draw: 22.70%. For Luleå HF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -0.848%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70%EV -1.56%E -0.440%K -0.613%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.16%EV -0.848%E -0.424%K -0.848%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.14%EV -3.54%E -0.834%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.7%2026-03-05 16:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28%EV -1.56%E -0.440%K -0.613%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.93%EV -3.82%E -1.97%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.79%EV -3.54%E -0.834%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-05 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28%EV -1.56%E -0.440%K -0.613%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.93%EV -3.82%E -1.97%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.79%EV -3.54%E -0.834%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-05 16:20
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.35%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.12%EV -5.31%E -2.78%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.53%EV -3.54%E -0.834%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-05 07:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.35%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.86%EV -4.81%E -2.51%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -4.68%E -1.11%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-05 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.64%EV -4.34%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.66%EV -4.81%E -2.51%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%EV -4.68%E -1.11%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-05 07:05
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -4.34%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.78%EV -6.30%E -3.33%K -7.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -6.95%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-05 16:20
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.34%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -6.80%E -3.62%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -6.95%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-05 16:20
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.34%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -6.80%E -3.62%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -6.95%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-05 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.34%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -6.80%E -3.62%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -6.95%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-05 16:20
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.29%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.08%EV -2.83%E -1.44%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.63%EV -3.54%E -0.834%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-04 17:09
Marathon Bet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 27.75%EV -6.28%E -1.86%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -5.81%E -3.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -6.95%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-05 08:24
1xBet🎯3.36I 29.76%NM 28.02%EV -6.83%E -2.03%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.03%EV -4.81%E -2.51%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -6.95%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-05 08:25
LeoVegas🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -7.11%E -2.12%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -8.28%E -4.48%K -9.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.22%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-05 16:24
TABtouch🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.56%EV -9.28%E -5.07%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -10.35%E -2.62%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-05 16:24
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.41%EV -9.77%E -5.37%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -9.22%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-05 07:04
Everygame🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.59%EV -12.65%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.40%EV -5.81%E -3.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.01%EV -14.89%E -3.97%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-05 07:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.10%EV -14.04%E -4.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 48.67%EV -11.26%E -6.29%K -14.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.23%EV -14.89%E -3.97%K -5.42%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-05 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.37%EV -15.43%E -5.06%K -7.53%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.16%EV -12.75%E -7.24%K -16.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.47%EV -12.62%E -3.28%K -4.43%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-05 07:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%3.0%2026-03-05 17:45
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%4.2%2026-03-05 13:08
DraftKings🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%4.3%2026-03-05 04:20
Pinnacle🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%4.7%2026-03-05 13:10
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%4.9%2026-03-02 18:14
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-03-02 18:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-03-02 18:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-03-02 18:14
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%5.4%2026-03-05 07:05
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%5.4%2026-03-05 07:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-03-01 09:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 36.30%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.70%6.8%2026-03-05 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%7.5%2026-03-02 19:54
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%7.5%2026-03-02 19:54
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 39.18%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.82%8.2%2026-03-05 09:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 38.58%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.42%10.8%2026-03-05 17:50