The School of Odds
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Leksands IF v HV71

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 14:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF (Local)

Prediction 59.37%1.68fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -3.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.89%59.44%58.97%60.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.601.601.6563.69%62.44%62.50%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HV71 (Visit)

Prediction 40.63%2.46fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.689%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.65%40.56%41.03%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.292.302.4245.45%43.74%43.48%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leksands IF (Local): 59.37%; HV71 (Visit): 40.63%. For HV71 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.42, with an expected value of -1.67%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.05%E -1.24%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.51%E -1.92%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 14:09
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.42%E -2.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 14:01
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.42%E -2.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 14:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.42%E -2.75%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 14:02
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.01%E -3.13%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 14:09
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.01%E -3.13%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.54%E -2.84%K -5.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 14:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.01%E -3.13%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.61%E -4.82%K -8.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 09:15
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.01%E -3.13%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.61%E -4.82%K -8.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 09:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.01%E -3.13%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.61%E -4.82%K -8.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 09:16
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.01%E -3.13%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.61%E -4.82%K -8.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 09:15
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -5.61%E -3.53%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -1.67%E -0.689%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-07 14:04
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.20%E -3.92%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.48%E -1.03%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.79%E -4.33%K -11.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.57%E -3.81%K -6.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 14:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 61.77%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.23%7.2%2026-03-07 14:10
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 58.79%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.21%8.3%2026-03-07 14:10
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 41.19%1.52I 65.79%NM 58.81%11.9%2026-03-07 14:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 57.94%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.06%14.3%2026-03-07 14:09

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.91%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.62%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.47%2.3%2026-03-07 14:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.41%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.34%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%3.3%2026-03-07 14:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.41%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.34%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%3.3%2026-03-07 14:09
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.72%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.46%4.8%2026-03-07 14:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.57%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%5.0%2026-03-07 14:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%5.1%2026-03-07 14:09
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.15%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.2%2026-03-07 14:09
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.35%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%6.6%2026-03-07 14:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.21%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%6.7%2026-03-07 14:08
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%6.9%2026-03-07 14:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%6.9%2026-03-07 14:09
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%6.9%2026-03-07 14:09
LeoVegas🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%9.0%2026-03-07 14:10
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%9.8%2026-03-07 14:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.69%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%10.4%2026-03-07 14:08
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.59%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.01%11.0%2026-03-07 14:07
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.92%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.15%15.2%2026-03-07 14:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.09%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.40%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.51%15.4%2026-03-07 14:09