Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF v HV71

Kickoff: 2026-03-24 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

46%

31%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF (Local)

Prediction 46.27%2.16fair odd

EV -0.519%

Edge -0.241%

Kelly -0.451%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.12%46.27%46.27%49.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.871.961.932.1553.48%51.12%51.81%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HV71 (Visit)

Prediction 30.72%3.26fair odd

EV +3.21%

Edge +0.956%

Kelly +1.36%

Growth +0.044%

assuming max odds 3.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.88%30.69%30.72%33.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.753.123.153.3636.36%32.07%31.75%29.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.01%4.35fair odd

EV +3.55%

Edge +0.789%

Kelly +1.01%

Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.59%23.03%23.01%24.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.754.184.204.5026.67%23.93%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leksands IF (Local): 46.27%; HV71 (Visit): 30.72%; Draw: 23.01%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.55%.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -13.01%E -6.92%K -14.79%G +0.000%	3.36I 29.76%NM 27.88%EV +3.21%E +0.956%K +1.36%G +0.044%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -3.35%E -0.798%K -1.05%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-24 17:59
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.77%EV -7.46%E -3.73%K -7.46%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.56%EV +1.37%E +0.415%K +0.595%G +0.008%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.67%EV +3.55%E +0.789%K +1.01%G +0.036%	2.5%	2026-03-24 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.77%EV -7.46%E -3.73%K -7.46%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.56%EV +1.37%E +0.415%K +0.595%G +0.008%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.67%EV +3.55%E +0.789%K +1.01%G +0.036%	2.5%	2026-03-24 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.77%EV -7.46%E -3.73%K -7.46%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.56%EV +1.37%E +0.415%K +0.595%G +0.008%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.67%EV +3.55%E +0.789%K +1.01%G +0.036%	2.5%	2026-03-24 17:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.94%EV -9.77%E -5.01%K -10.29%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.37%EV -0.166%E -0.051%K -0.074%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV +1.25%E +0.284%K +0.368%G +0.005%	4.8%	2026-03-24 17:59
Unibet🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 48.73%EV -10.70%E -5.54%K -11.50%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -1.70%E -0.532%K -0.774%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV -1.05%E -0.244%K -0.318%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-24 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 48.73%EV -10.70%E -5.54%K -11.50%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -1.70%E -0.532%K -0.774%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV -1.05%E -0.244%K -0.318%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-24 17:59
Grosvenor🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 48.73%EV -10.70%E -5.54%K -11.50%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -1.70%E -0.532%K -0.774%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV -1.05%E -0.244%K -0.318%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-24 17:59
Casumo🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 48.73%EV -10.70%E -5.54%K -11.50%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -1.70%E -0.532%K -0.774%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV -1.05%E -0.244%K -0.318%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-24 18:00
Coolbet🎯	2.11I 47.39%NM 45.51%EV -2.37%E -1.12%K -2.13%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.48%EV -3.24%E -1.03%K -1.51%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.01%EV -7.95%E -1.99%K -2.65%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-24 17:59
1xBet🎯	1.99I 50.25%NM 47.27%EV -7.92%E -3.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%	3.13I 31.95%NM 30.06%EV -3.85%E -1.23%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 22.67%EV -4.50%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-24 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.65%EV -5.61%E -2.75%K -5.39%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -3.35%E -0.798%K -1.05%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-24 17:59
LeoVegas🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 48.81%EV -13.01%E -6.92%K -14.79%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -2.20%E -0.518%K -0.677%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-03-24 18:00
TABtouch🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -13.47%E -7.21%K -15.49%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -3.35%E -0.798%K -1.05%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-03-24 18:00
Everygame🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 46.83%EV -11.62%E -6.09%K -12.77%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -6.31%E -2.07%K -3.08%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -13.71%E -3.66%K -4.98%G +0.000%	11.8%	2026-03-24 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 47.30%EV -12.09%E -6.36%K -13.43%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -7.85%E -2.62%K -3.92%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 22.75%EV -9.10%E -2.30%K -3.09%G +0.000%	11.3%	2026-03-24 18:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯	1.89I 52.91%NM 45.89%EV -12.55%E -6.64%K -14.10%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 30.98%EV -13.99%E -5.00%K -7.77%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 23.13%EV -13.71%E -3.66%K -4.98%G +0.000%	15.3%	2026-03-24 17:59
Betway🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -0.519%E -0.241%K -0.451%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -15.53%E -5.65%K -8.87%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -7.95%E -1.99%K -2.65%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-03-24 17:59
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 46.04%EV -13.01%E -6.92%K -14.79%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 31.48%EV -15.53%E -5.65%K -8.87%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 22.48%EV -11.41%E -2.96%K -4.00%G +0.000%	15.5%	2026-03-24 17:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%	2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%	1.5%	2026-03-24 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%	2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%	1.5%	2026-03-24 18:00
Smarkets◎	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%	3.9%	2026-03-24 18:00
Pinnacle🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%	2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%	5.0%	2026-03-24 17:59
NordicBet🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%	2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%	5.1%	2026-03-24 18:00
888sport🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%	5.4%	2026-03-24 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%	5.4%	2026-03-24 17:59
888sport (SE)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%	5.4%	2026-03-24 17:59
Betsson🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%	6.2%	2026-03-24 17:59
DraftKings🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%	7.0%	2026-03-24 18:00
Neds🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%	7.2%	2026-03-24 17:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%	7.2%	2026-03-24 17:59
Coral🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%	7.6%	2026-03-24 17:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%	7.6%	2026-03-24 17:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%	8.1%	2026-03-24 17:59