Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF v HV71

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 17:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

51%

27%

22%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF (Local)

Prediction 50.69%1.97fair odd

EV +4.43%

Edge +2.15%

Kelly +4.18%

Growth +0.185%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.50%50.47%50.69%51.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.761.911.912.0656.82%52.47%52.36%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HV71 (Visit)

Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd

EV -3.95%

Edge -1.12%

Kelly -1.56%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.18%27.31%27.13%29.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.053.293.253.5432.79%30.40%30.77%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.17%4.51fair odd

EV -3.98%

Edge -0.920%

Kelly -1.20%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.74%22.22%22.17%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.804.094.104.3326.32%24.44%24.39%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leksands IF (Local): 50.69%; HV71 (Visit): 27.13%; Draw: 22.17%. For Leksands IF (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.97. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.43%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
ATG (SE)🎯	2.06I 48.54%NM 47.50%EV +4.43%E +2.15%K +4.18%G +0.185%	3.35I 29.85%NM 29.21%EV -9.11%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.30%EV -6.87%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000%	2.2%	2026-03-22 17:30
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV +2.40%E +1.19%K +2.35%G +0.056%	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV -9.11%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -6.87%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-03-22 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.99%EV +2.40%E +1.19%K +2.35%G +0.056%	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV -9.11%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -6.87%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-03-22 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.76%EV +1.39%E +0.693%K +1.39%G +0.019%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.94%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -9.08%E -2.22%K -2.93%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-22 17:30
Unibet🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -0.134%E -0.068%K -0.138%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -9.08%E -2.22%K -2.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-22 17:29
Casumo🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.05%EV -0.641%E -0.327%K -0.668%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -9.08%E -2.22%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-22 17:29
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.05%EV -0.641%E -0.327%K -0.668%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -9.08%E -2.22%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-22 17:30
Grosvenor🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.05%EV -0.641%E -0.327%K -0.668%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -9.08%E -2.22%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-22 17:30
LeoVegas🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -2.67%E -1.39%K -2.90%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -14.53%E -4.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-03-22 17:29
Coolbet🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.29%EV -3.18%E -1.66%K -3.49%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -3.98%E -0.920%K -1.20%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-22 17:30
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.19%EV -3.68%E -1.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.64%EV -6.40%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -4.65%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-03-22 13:00
TABtouch🎯	1.89I 52.91%NM 48.11%EV -4.19%E -2.22%K -4.71%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -14.53%E -4.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -12.41%E -3.14%K -4.21%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-03-22 17:30
1xBet🎯	1.86I 53.76%NM 50.63%EV -5.71%E -3.07%K -6.64%G +0.000%	3.46I 28.90%NM 27.22%EV -6.12%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -5.76%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-22 15:29
Everygame🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 49.26%EV -7.23%E -3.95%K -8.71%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 23.42%EV -14.63%E -3.80%K -5.13%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-03-22 12:59
Marathon Bet🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -7.74%E -4.25%K -9.44%G +0.000%	3.54I 28.25%NM 26.47%EV -3.95%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -5.76%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-22 17:29
Betway🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.94%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-03-22 17:29
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 49.96%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.94%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -13.18%E -4.12%K -5.99%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -9.08%E -2.22%K -2.93%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-03-22 13:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 49.10%EV -10.27%E -5.80%K -13.34%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 28.03%EV -15.89%E -5.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 22.87%EV -15.74%E -4.14%K -5.62%G +0.000%	15.1%	2026-03-22 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 49.01%EV -10.78%E -6.12%K -14.18%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 28.28%EV -17.25%E -5.66%K -8.41%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%EV -15.74%E -4.14%K -5.62%G +0.000%	15.9%	2026-03-22 17:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%	1.1%	2026-03-22 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%	1.1%	2026-03-22 17:25
Kalshi◎	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%	3.8%	2026-03-22 17:30
Pinnacle🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%	2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%	5.0%	2026-03-22 17:29
Betsson🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%	5.0%	2026-03-22 17:30
NordicBet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%	5.0%	2026-03-22 17:30
888sport🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%	5.4%	2026-03-22 17:09
888sport (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%	5.4%	2026-03-22 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%	5.4%	2026-03-22 17:10
DraftKings🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%	6.0%	2026-03-22 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%	6.7%	2026-03-22 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%	7.5%	2026-03-22 12:59
Neds🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%	7.5%	2026-03-22 12:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%	7.5%	2026-03-22 12:59
Coral🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%	7.5%	2026-03-22 12:59
Smarkets◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%	2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%	8.2%	2026-03-22 12:48