The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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IF Björklöven v Rögle BK

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 17:00 UTC

Final: IF Björklöven 1–2 Rögle BK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Björklöven (Local)

Prediction 35.78%2.80fair odd
EV +0.170%
Edge +0.061%
Kelly +0.095%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.27%35.73%36.30%37.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.582.602.8040.82%38.76%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rögle BK (Visit)

Prediction 64.22%1.56fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -5.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.34%64.27%63.70%65.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.481.481.5169.44%67.43%67.57%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Björklöven (Local): 35.78%; Rögle BK (Visit): 64.22%. For IF Björklöven (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.795. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.800, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.170%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV +0.170%E +0.061%K +0.095%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -6.23%E -4.27%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-15 15:40
Pinnacle🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -1.26%E -0.457%K -0.716%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-15 15:50
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.02%E -2.00%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 15:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -5.91%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -7.52%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 15:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.98%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 15:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.98%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 15:44
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.98%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 15:45
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 16:55
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -12.35%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -4.95%E -3.34%K -10.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-13 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -12.35%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -4.95%E -3.34%K -10.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-13 16:19
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -12.35%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -4.95%E -3.34%K -10.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-13 16:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -12.35%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -4.95%E -3.34%K -10.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-13 16:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%4.0%2026-10-15 15:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 34.92%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.08%4.5%2026-10-15 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 34.76%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.24%5.0%2026-10-15 16:50
Smarkets◎2.72I 36.76%NM 34.46%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.54%6.7%2026-10-15 16:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.81%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.96%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.24%2.2%2026-10-15 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.48%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%3.3%2026-10-15 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.48%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%3.3%2026-10-15 15:15
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.22%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.81%4.2%2026-10-15 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.43%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%5.1%2026-10-15 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.21%6.0%2026-10-15 15:50
1xBet🎯3.71I 26.95%NM 25.37%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%6.2%2026-10-15 16:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.39%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-10-15 15:15
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.39%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-10-15 15:15
Casumo🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.39%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-10-15 15:15
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.39%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-10-15 15:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 25.07%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.27%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.65%6.7%2026-10-15 16:35
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%7.7%2026-10-15 15:50
TABtouch🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.42%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%9.9%2026-10-15 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%11.3%2026-10-15 15:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.08%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.98%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.94%15.4%2026-10-15 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.69%1.69I 59.17%NM 50.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.77%17.1%2026-10-15 16:50