The School of Odds
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IF Björklöven v Malmö Redhawks

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 17:00 UTC

Final: IF Björklöven 2–4 Malmö Redhawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Björklöven (Local)

Prediction 42.04%2.38fair odd
EV +1.31%
Edge +0.545%
Kelly +0.931%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.45%41.79%42.04%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.222.232.4147.62%45.15%44.94%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Malmö Redhawks (Visit)

Prediction 57.96%1.73fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -3.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%58.21%57.96%60.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.651.671.6863.69%60.66%59.88%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Björklöven (Local): 42.04%; Malmö Redhawks (Visit): 57.96%. For IF Björklöven (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.41, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.31%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV +1.31%E +0.545%K +0.931%G +0.012%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -9.00%E -5.73%K -15.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 16:10
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.31%E -1.44%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.36%E -2.64%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-22 15:39
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.31%E -1.44%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.10%E -3.77%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 15:50
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -5.41%E -2.41%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.62%E -1.56%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-22 16:50
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.41%E -2.41%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.36%E -2.64%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 16:15
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.41%E -2.41%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.36%E -2.64%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 16:16
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.41%E -2.41%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.00%E -5.73%K -15.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-22 15:46
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.20%E -1.92%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 15:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.20%E -1.92%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 15:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.20%E -1.92%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 15:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -11.72%E -5.58%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -3.20%E -1.92%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 06:35
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -11.72%E -5.58%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -3.20%E -1.92%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 06:35
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -11.72%E -5.58%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -3.20%E -1.92%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 06:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -11.72%E -5.58%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -3.20%E -1.92%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 06:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%1.5%2026-10-22 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%1.5%2026-10-22 16:55
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%3.0%2026-10-22 16:55
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 41.58%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.42%8.3%2026-10-22 16:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.35%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%3.0%2026-10-22 15:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.35%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%3.0%2026-10-22 15:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.35%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%3.0%2026-10-22 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%4.8%2026-10-22 15:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.86%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%5.6%2026-10-22 15:50
1xBet🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 29.52%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.80%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.69%6.2%2026-10-22 16:00
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%6.3%2026-10-22 15:50
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.80%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%6.6%2026-10-22 15:10
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.80%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%6.6%2026-10-22 15:10
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.80%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%6.6%2026-10-22 15:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.80%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%6.6%2026-10-22 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.09%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.60%6.6%2026-10-22 16:00
TABtouch🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.55%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.01%10.0%2026-10-22 15:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.69%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.67%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%10.4%2026-10-22 15:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.84%1.86I 53.76%NM 46.43%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.73%15.8%2026-10-22 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 30.51%1.83I 54.64%NM 45.85%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.64%19.2%2026-10-22 16:49