The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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IF Björklöven v Färjestad BK

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:15 UTC

Final: IF Björklöven 0–5 Färjestad BK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Björklöven (Local)

Prediction 23.75%4.21fair odd
EV +11.63%
Edge +2.48%
Kelly +3.14%
Growth +0.366%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.64%23.81%23.75%25.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.234.354.7028.57%23.64%22.99%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Färjestad BK (Visit)

Prediction 55.24%1.81fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.942%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.40%55.16%55.24%57.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.661.661.7864.10%60.14%60.24%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.01%4.76fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.495%
Kelly -0.630%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.68%21.02%21.01%22.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.274.284.6525.97%23.41%23.39%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Björklöven (Local): 23.75%; Färjestad BK (Visit): 55.24%; Draw: 21.01%. For IF Björklöven (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.21. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.63%.

12 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.78%EV +11.63%E +2.48%K +3.14%G +0.366%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.77%EV -4.99%E -2.90%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.45%EV -8.60%E -1.98%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-26 11:55
Unibet (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%EV +11.63%E +2.48%K +3.14%G +0.366%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.06%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.30%EV -8.60%E -1.98%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-26 11:55
Svenska Spel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%EV +11.63%E +2.48%K +3.14%G +0.366%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.06%EV -6.10%E -3.59%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.30%EV -8.60%E -1.98%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-26 11:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV +9.26%E +2.01%K +2.57%G +0.238%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.95%EV -7.75%E -4.64%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV -10.71%E -2.52%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 11:55
Grosvenor🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +6.88%E +1.53%K +1.97%G +0.135%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.98%EV -9.41%E -5.74%K -14.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -11.76%E -2.80%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-26 11:55
Casumo🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +6.88%E +1.53%K +1.97%G +0.135%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.98%EV -9.41%E -5.74%K -14.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -11.76%E -2.80%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-26 11:55
Unibet (NL)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +6.88%E +1.53%K +1.97%G +0.135%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.98%EV -9.41%E -5.74%K -14.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -11.76%E -2.80%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-26 11:55
Unibet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +6.88%E +1.53%K +1.97%G +0.135%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.98%EV -9.41%E -5.74%K -14.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -11.76%E -2.80%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-26 11:55
TABtouch🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV +4.51%E +1.02%K +1.33%G +0.060%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.02%EV -11.62%E -7.26%K -19.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -13.86%E -3.38%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-26 11:55
PMU (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.70%EV +2.13%E +0.496%K +0.646%G +0.014%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.05%EV -13.83%E -8.86%K -24.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.25%EV -15.96%E -3.99%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-26 11:55
Marathon Bet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.61%EV -1.43%E -0.345%K -0.454%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -8.31%E -5.00%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.45%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-26 09:25
1xBet🎯4.09I 24.45%NM 23.02%EV -2.86%E -0.698%K -0.924%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%EV -7.20%E -4.29%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -5.45%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-26 09:30
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -4.99%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.77%EV -4.44%E -2.57%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -7.55%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-26 08:50
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.99%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -5.54%E -3.24%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -5.45%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-26 08:50
Coolbet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.30%EV -9.74%E -2.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.02%EV -1.68%E -0.942%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.68%EV -2.30%E -0.495%K -0.630%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 12:19
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -12.12%E -3.28%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.50%EV -8.31%E -5.00%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -9.65%E -2.25%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-26 08:49
Winamax (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.62%EV -16.87%E -4.82%K -6.75%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 53.85%EV -11.62%E -7.26%K -19.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.54%EV -15.96%E -3.99%K -5.32%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-26 08:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.41%EV -16.87%E -4.82%K -6.75%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 53.40%EV -11.62%E -7.26%K -19.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.19%EV -19.11%E -4.96%K -6.71%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-26 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (12)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%3.7%2026-09-26 08:50
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%4.2%2026-09-26 04:25
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%5.3%2026-09-26 11:35
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%5.3%2026-09-26 11:35
Pinnacle🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.72%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.28%5.4%2026-09-26 09:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%7.6%2026-09-25 07:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%7.6%2026-09-25 07:04
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%7.6%2026-09-25 07:05
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%7.6%2026-09-25 07:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%8.3%2026-09-26 08:50
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 33.01%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.99%9.0%2026-09-26 13:10
Smarkets◎2.92I 34.25%NM 30.81%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.19%11.2%2026-09-26 08:55