The School of Odds
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HV71 v Skellefteå AIK

Kickoff: 2026-09-24 17:00 UTC

Final: HV71 4–3 Skellefteå AIK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HV71 (Local)

Prediction 23.42%4.27fair odd
EV +12.40%
Edge +2.58%
Kelly +3.26%
Growth +0.405%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.94%23.49%23.42%24.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.344.454.8027.78%23.04%22.47%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Skellefteå AIK (Visit)

Prediction 55.94%1.79fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.39%55.97%55.94%59.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.611.611.7567.11%62.13%62.11%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.64%4.85fair odd
EV -0.935%
Edge -0.195%
Kelly -0.246%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.04%20.54%20.64%21.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.534.604.8025.64%22.06%21.74%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HV71 (Local): 23.42%; Skellefteå AIK (Visit): 55.94%; Draw: 20.64%. For HV71 (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.40%.

14 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.18%EV +12.40%E +2.58%K +3.26%G +0.405%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.43%EV -8.81%E -5.40%K -13.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.39%EV -1.97%E -0.414%K -0.525%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-24 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.18%EV +12.40%E +2.58%K +3.26%G +0.405%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.43%EV -8.81%E -5.40%K -13.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.39%EV -1.97%E -0.414%K -0.525%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-24 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.18%EV +12.40%E +2.58%K +3.26%G +0.405%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.43%EV -8.81%E -5.40%K -13.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.39%EV -1.97%E -0.414%K -0.525%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-24 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.08%EV +11.23%E +2.36%K +2.99%G +0.336%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.62%EV -10.49%E -6.56%K -17.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.30%EV -3.00%E -0.638%K -0.811%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-24 16:35
Unibet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV +10.06%E +2.14%K +2.72%G +0.273%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.54%EV -11.61%E -7.35%K -20.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -5.06%E -1.10%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 16:35
Casumo🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV +10.06%E +2.14%K +2.72%G +0.273%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.69%EV -12.17%E -7.75%K -21.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.06%E -1.10%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-24 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV +10.06%E +2.14%K +2.72%G +0.273%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.69%EV -12.17%E -7.75%K -21.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.06%E -1.10%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-24 16:35
Grosvenor🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV +10.06%E +2.14%K +2.72%G +0.273%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.69%EV -12.17%E -7.75%K -21.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.06%E -1.10%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-24 16:35
TABtouch🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV +5.38%E +1.19%K +1.54%G +0.083%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.25%EV -14.40%E -9.41%K -27.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -9.19%E -2.09%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-24 16:35
PMU (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.14%EV +3.03%E +0.689%K +0.892%G +0.027%1.49I 67.11%NM 59.48%EV -16.64%E -11.17%K -33.96%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.37%EV -10.22%E -2.35%K -3.05%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-24 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -1.65%E -0.393%K -0.516%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.52%EV -8.81%E -5.40%K -13.98%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.16%EV -4.03%E -0.867%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-24 16:00
1xBet🎯4.14I 24.15%NM 22.73%EV -3.05%E -0.738%K -0.973%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -7.69%E -4.66%K -11.83%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.24%EV -4.03%E -0.867%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 16:03
Unibet (UK)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.99%E -0.974%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.08%EV -6.01%E -3.58%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -7.13%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-24 15:50
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -4.33%E -2.53%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -7.13%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-24 09:15
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%EV -9.85%E -2.56%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.97%EV -2.10%E -1.20%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.04%EV -0.935%E -0.195%K -0.246%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-24 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -11.02%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.73%EV -9.37%E -5.78%K -15.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -9.19%E -2.09%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-24 15:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.89%EV -15.70%E -4.36%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 55.13%EV -12.73%E -8.16%K -22.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.98%EV -15.38%E -3.75%K -4.96%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-24 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.72%EV -15.70%E -4.36%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 54.39%EV -12.17%E -7.75%K -21.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.89%EV -19.51%E -5.00%K -6.73%G +0.000%17.1%2026-09-24 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (14)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%3.8%2026-09-24 15:50
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%4.4%2026-09-24 11:55
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%5.3%2026-09-24 13:05
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%5.3%2026-09-24 13:05
Pinnacle🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.79%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.21%5.5%2026-09-24 15:50
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%5.9%2026-09-24 09:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%5.9%2026-09-24 09:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%5.9%2026-09-24 09:15
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%7.5%2026-09-22 07:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%7.5%2026-09-22 07:44
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-09-22 07:43
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-09-22 07:44
Smarkets◎2.76I 36.23%NM 33.49%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.51%8.2%2026-09-24 16:00
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 34.90%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.10%8.9%2026-09-24 16:55