The School of Odds
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HV71 v Örebro HK

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 17:00 UTC

Final: HV71 2–1 Örebro HK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HV71 (Local)

Prediction 40.58%2.46fair odd
EV -0.170%
Edge -0.069%
Kelly -0.117%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.14%40.73%40.58%43.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.322.352.4646.51%43.13%42.55%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Örebro HK (Visit)

Prediction 36.64%2.73fair odd
EV -0.697%
Edge -0.257%
Kelly -0.407%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.62%36.75%36.64%39.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.532.552.7142.55%39.56%39.22%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.78%4.39fair odd
EV +2.49%
Edge +0.553%
Kelly +0.711%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.40%22.52%22.78%23.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.094.104.5027.40%24.44%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HV71 (Local): 40.58%; Örebro HK (Visit): 36.64%; Draw: 22.78%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.49%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.14%EV -0.170%E -0.069%K -0.117%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.46%EV -10.59%E -4.34%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.40%EV +2.49%E +0.553%K +0.711%G +0.018%3.9%2026-10-01 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.87%EV -0.576%E -0.235%K -0.397%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.14%EV -3.63%E -1.38%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.99%EV -3.20%E -0.754%K -0.986%G +0.000%2.4%2026-10-01 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.07%EV -1.39%E -0.571%K -0.970%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.02%EV -3.63%E -1.38%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.91%EV -3.20%E -0.754%K -0.986%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-01 15:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.07%EV -1.39%E -0.571%K -0.970%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.02%EV -3.63%E -1.38%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.91%EV -3.20%E -0.754%K -0.986%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-01 15:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.29%EV -3.42%E -1.44%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.88%EV -4.73%E -1.82%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.83%EV -4.34%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-01 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.04%EV -11.53%E -5.29%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.62%EV -0.697%E -0.257%K -0.407%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.34%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 16:55
1xBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.06%EV -5.04%E -2.15%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.35%EV -8.03%E -3.20%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.59%EV -5.48%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-01 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -4.63%E -1.97%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.62%E -1.61%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-01 16:55
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -4.63%E -1.97%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.62%E -1.61%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-01 15:24
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -4.63%E -1.97%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.62%E -1.61%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-01 15:25
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -4.63%E -1.97%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.62%E -1.61%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-01 15:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08%EV -4.63%E -1.97%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.62%E -1.61%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-01 15:24
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.66%EV -6.66%E -2.90%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -4.73%E -1.82%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -8.90%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-01 16:55
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.99%EV -7.47%E -3.28%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.22%EV -10.22%E -4.17%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.79%EV -8.90%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-01 15:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.85%EV -10.72%E -4.87%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.68%EV -10.22%E -4.17%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -8.90%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-01 16:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.98%EV -9.50%E -4.26%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.15%EV -12.06%E -5.02%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -11.18%E -2.87%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-01 15:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.31%EV -12.75%E -5.93%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.88%EV -13.89%E -5.91%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.81%EV -13.45%E -3.54%K -4.80%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-01 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.94%EV -12.75%E -5.93%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.54%EV -13.89%E -5.91%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.52%EV -16.87%E -4.62%K -6.37%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-01 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.03%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.97%1.4%2026-10-01 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.03%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.97%1.4%2026-10-01 16:55
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%4.2%2026-10-01 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%4.6%2026-10-01 10:14
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%4.8%2026-10-01 11:20
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%5.2%2026-10-01 16:55
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%5.5%2026-10-01 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%5.5%2026-10-01 16:54
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-29 20:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-29 20:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-29 20:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-10-01 16:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-09-30 05:24
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-09-30 05:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-09-30 05:24
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-09-30 05:24
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 51.76%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.24%8.5%2026-10-01 16:55