The School of Odds
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HV71 v Leksands IF

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HV71 (Local)

Prediction 41.41%2.42fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.610%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.54%41.25%41.41%41.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3847.62%44.44%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leksands IF (Visit)

Prediction 35.03%2.86fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -2.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.55%35.03%35.03%36.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.622.632.7541.67%38.18%38.02%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.57%4.24fair odd
EV +1.34%
Edge +0.312%
Kelly +0.406%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.40%23.72%23.57%24.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.044.104.3027.40%24.72%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HV71 (Local): 41.41%; Leksands IF (Visit): 35.03%; Draw: 23.57%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.24. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.34%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 41.07%EV -1.45%E -0.610%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.20%EV -5.43%E -2.01%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.73%EV +1.34%E +0.312%K +0.406%G +0.005%2.3%2026-03-18 16:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.58%EV -3.52%E -1.51%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.88%EV -5.43%E -2.01%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%EV +1.34%E +0.312%K +0.406%G +0.005%3.2%2026-03-18 16:44
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.58%EV -3.52%E -1.51%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.88%EV -5.43%E -2.01%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%EV +1.34%E +0.312%K +0.406%G +0.005%3.2%2026-03-18 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.93%EV -7.18%E -2.71%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -1.02%E -0.242%K -0.318%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 16:45
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.82%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -7.88%E -3.00%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -1.02%E -0.242%K -0.318%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-18 16:44
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.82%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -7.88%E -3.00%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -1.02%E -0.242%K -0.318%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-18 16:44
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.82%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -7.88%E -3.00%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -1.02%E -0.242%K -0.318%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-18 16:44
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.82%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -7.88%E -3.00%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -1.02%E -0.242%K -0.318%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-18 16:45
Coolbet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.61%EV -4.35%E -1.88%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.95%EV -3.68%E -1.34%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.44%EV -3.37%E -0.823%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-18 14:49
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.35%EV -7.66%E -3.44%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -10.68%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -3.37%E -0.823%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-18 16:44
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.48%EV -6.01%E -2.65%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.27%EV -6.48%E -2.43%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.25%EV -4.55%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -4.77%E -2.07%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -5.43%E -2.01%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -5.73%E -1.43%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-18 11:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.95%EV -6.13%E -2.29%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.73%E -1.43%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-18 17:55
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.76%EV -10.68%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -5.73%E -1.43%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-18 16:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.98%E -5.11%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.32%EV -10.68%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV -6.91%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-18 11:19
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.84%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -8.93%E -3.44%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -11.62%E -3.10%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-18 11:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.94%EV -13.05%E -6.21%K -11.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.82%EV -15.94%E -6.64%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.24%EV -12.80%E -3.46%K -4.74%G +0.000%16.3%2026-03-18 11:19
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%EV -8.91%E -4.05%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -8.93%E -3.44%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -13.98%E -3.83%K -5.27%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-18 17:50
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.54%EV -10.98%E -5.11%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.58%EV -14.19%E -5.79%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.88%EV -13.98%E -3.83%K -5.27%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-18 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 47.92%1.96I 51.02%NM 52.08%-2.0%2026-03-18 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.03%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.97%1.4%2026-03-18 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.03%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.97%1.4%2026-03-18 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%4.7%2026-03-18 17:50
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%4.7%2026-03-18 14:50
Smarkets◎1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%4.9%2026-03-18 17:45
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%5.2%2026-03-18 16:29
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%5.2%2026-03-18 16:30
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-16 18:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-16 18:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-16 18:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-03-17 15:00
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-16 14:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-16 14:10
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-16 14:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-16 14:10