Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frölunda HC v Malmö Redhawks

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 14:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

50%

27%

22%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frölunda HC (Local)

Prediction 50.32%1.99fair odd

EV -2.88%

Edge -1.49%

Kelly -3.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

49.01%50.31%50.32%51.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.761.841.831.9356.82%54.22%54.64%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Malmö Redhawks (Visit)

Prediction 27.18%3.68fair odd

EV -3.51%

Edge -0.988%

Kelly -1.38%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.41%27.06%27.18%28.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.053.423.453.5532.79%29.27%28.99%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.50%4.44fair odd

EV +1.25%

Edge +0.277%

Kelly +0.356%

Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.39%22.63%22.50%23.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.704.224.304.5027.03%23.69%23.26%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frölunda HC (Local): 50.32%; Malmö Redhawks (Visit): 27.18%; Draw: 22.50%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.25%.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
ATG (SE)🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.70%EV -2.88%E -1.49%K -3.10%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.56%EV -3.51%E -0.988%K -1.38%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.74%EV +1.25%E +0.277%K +0.356%G +0.004%	2.2%	2026-03-14 13:00
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.89I 52.91%NM 51.22%EV -4.89%E -2.59%K -5.50%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.27%EV -3.51%E -0.988%K -1.38%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.51%EV +1.25%E +0.277%K +0.356%G +0.004%	3.3%	2026-03-14 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯	1.89I 52.91%NM 51.22%EV -4.89%E -2.59%K -5.50%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.27%EV -3.51%E -0.988%K -1.38%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.51%EV +1.25%E +0.277%K +0.356%G +0.004%	3.3%	2026-03-14 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.04%EV -5.90%E -3.16%K -6.78%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -4.87%E -1.39%K -1.95%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV -1.00%E -0.228%K -0.295%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-14 13:00
Unibet🎯	1.84I 54.35%NM 51.12%EV -7.41%E -4.03%K -8.82%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.23%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -2.13%E -0.489%K -0.636%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-14 13:00
Grosvenor🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -6.23%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV -2.13%E -0.489%K -0.636%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-14 13:00
Casumo🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -6.23%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV -2.13%E -0.489%K -0.636%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-14 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -6.23%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV -2.13%E -0.489%K -0.636%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-14 13:00
Coolbet🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.19%EV -4.39%E -2.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.64%EV -6.23%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -3.25%E -0.757%K -0.986%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-03-14 12:35
LeoVegas🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -9.42%E -5.24%K -11.78%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -8.94%E -2.67%K -3.81%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -3.25%E -0.757%K -0.986%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-03-14 13:00
1xBet🎯	1.84I 54.35%NM 51.13%EV -7.41%E -4.03%K -8.82%G +0.000%	3.52I 28.41%NM 26.73%EV -4.32%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -4.38%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-14 14:10
Marathon Bet🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -8.42%E -4.62%K -10.26%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -3.51%E -0.988%K -1.38%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -4.38%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-14 14:05
TABtouch🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 51.07%EV -10.43%E -5.86%K -13.37%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.30%E -3.12%K -4.48%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.39%EV -4.38%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-03-14 13:00
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.12%EV -4.39%E -2.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -4.87%E -1.39%K -1.95%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -5.50%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-14 12:05
Betway🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -3.89%E -2.04%K -4.27%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.87%E -1.39%K -1.95%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -10.00%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-14 12:05
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 49.63%EV -8.42%E -4.62%K -10.26%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -11.66%E -3.59%K -5.18%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.00%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-03-14 12:05
Everygame🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 49.47%EV -7.91%E -4.32%K -9.53%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.02%EV -8.94%E -2.67%K -3.81%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -13.38%E -3.47%K -4.69%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-03-14 14:04
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 49.01%EV -11.44%E -6.50%K -15.05%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 28.28%EV -17.10%E -5.61%K -8.34%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%EV -14.50%E -3.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%	15.9%	2026-03-14 12:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 49.01%EV -10.93%E -6.18%K -14.20%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 27.54%EV -14.38%E -4.57%K -6.69%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 23.45%EV -16.75%E -4.53%K -6.20%G +0.000%	15.3%	2026-03-14 14:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 61.50%	2.54I 39.37%NM 38.50%	2.3%	2026-03-14 14:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%	3.7%	2026-03-14 12:05
Kalshi◎	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%	3.8%	2026-03-14 14:10
DraftKings🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%	4.1%	2026-03-13 03:33
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%	4.9%	2026-03-14 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%	5.1%	2026-03-14 14:07
Pinnacle🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%	5.2%	2026-03-14 14:10
NordicBet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%	5.3%	2026-03-14 13:25
Betsson🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%	5.3%	2026-03-14 13:25
888sport🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%	5.4%	2026-03-12 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%	5.4%	2026-03-12 21:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%	6.7%	2026-03-12 22:05
Smarkets◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%	2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%	8.2%	2026-03-14 02:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%	8.4%	2026-03-13 13:59
Coral🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%	8.4%	2026-03-13 14:00