The School of Odds
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Frölunda HC v Luleå HF

Kickoff: 2026-03-23 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frölunda HC (Local)

Prediction 48.22%2.07fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.07%48.22%48.22%49.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.941.942.0256.18%51.67%51.55%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luleå HF (Visit)

Prediction 28.46%3.51fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.524%
Kelly -0.738%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.86%28.47%28.46%29.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.273.303.4533.90%30.54%30.30%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.32%4.29fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.493%
Kelly -0.646%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.49%23.31%23.32%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.004.004.2027.78%25.00%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frölunda HC (Local): 48.22%; Luleå HF (Visit): 28.46%; Draw: 23.32%. For Luleå HF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -1.81%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.39%EV -2.59%E -1.28%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%EV -1.81%E -0.524%K -0.738%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.27%EV -2.07%E -0.493%K -0.646%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-23 18:00
Coolbet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.90%EV -3.08%E -1.53%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.32%EV -3.23%E -0.950%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.77%EV -5.57%E -1.37%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-23 17:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.64%EV -3.56%E -1.78%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.20%EV -1.81%E -0.524%K -0.738%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.16%EV -2.07%E -0.493%K -0.646%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-23 17:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.64%EV -3.56%E -1.78%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.20%EV -1.81%E -0.524%K -0.738%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.16%EV -2.07%E -0.493%K -0.646%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-23 18:00
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.97%EV -3.56%E -1.78%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.64%EV -4.65%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.40%EV -4.40%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-23 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -3.56%E -1.78%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -4.40%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-23 17:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.26%EV -4.52%E -2.28%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.44%EV -4.37%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -4.40%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-23 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.47%EV -5.49%E -2.80%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -4.65%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -4.40%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-23 18:00
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -5.97%E -3.06%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -11.77%E -3.80%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -16.06%E -4.46%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-23 17:57
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.24%EV -6.45%E -3.33%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.73%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-23 17:59
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -6.93%E -3.59%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.73%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-23 17:59
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -6.93%E -3.59%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.73%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-23 17:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.37%EV -6.93%E -3.59%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.73%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-23 18:00
LeoVegas🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.54%EV -8.86%E -4.69%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -7.50%E -2.31%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.23%EV -7.90%E -2.00%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-23 18:00
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.32%EV -9.34%E -4.97%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -8.92%E -2.79%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -9.06%E -2.32%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-23 17:59
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -9.83%E -5.25%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.08%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -6.73%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-23 18:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 46.73%EV -10.31%E -5.54%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.46%EV -16.04%E -5.44%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.81%EV -14.89%E -4.08%K -5.62%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-23 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.92%EV -11.27%E -6.13%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -10.35%E -3.28%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -6.73%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-23 18:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.65%EV -14.17%E -7.96%K -18.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.86%EV -14.62%E -4.87%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.49%EV -10.23%E -2.66%K -3.59%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-23 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%3.3%2026-03-23 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%3.3%2026-03-23 17:59
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%3.7%2026-03-23 18:00
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%4.2%2026-03-23 18:00
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%5.1%2026-03-23 17:59
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-03-23 17:59
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-03-23 17:59
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-03-23 17:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-03-23 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-03-23 17:59
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-03-23 17:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-03-23 17:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%7.6%2026-03-23 18:00
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%7.6%2026-03-23 17:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%8.1%2026-03-23 17:59
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 61.14%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.86%9.0%2026-03-23 18:00