The School of Odds
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Frölunda HC v Färjestad BK

Kickoff: 2026-09-22 17:01 UTC

Final: Frölunda HC 3–2 Färjestad BK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frölunda HC (Local)

Prediction 55.44%1.80fair odd
EV -0.207%
Edge -0.115%
Kelly -0.258%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%55.18%55.27%56.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.711.701.8059.17%58.34%58.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Färjestad BK (Visit)

Prediction 44.56%2.24fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.67%44.82%44.73%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.112.122.1848.78%47.49%47.17%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frölunda HC (Local): 55.44%; Färjestad BK (Visit): 44.56%. For Frölunda HC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.804. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.800, with an expected value of -0.207%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -0.207%E -0.115%K -0.258%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -8.65%E -4.22%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-21 21:04
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.53%E -2.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.20%E -1.95%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-22 11:59
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.64%E -2.70%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.53%E -2.61%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-22 15:44
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.64%E -2.70%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.53%E -2.61%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-22 15:44
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.75%E -3.38%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.20%E -1.95%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 19:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.75%E -3.38%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.20%E -1.95%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 19:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.75%E -3.38%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.20%E -1.95%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 19:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.75%E -3.38%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.65%E -4.22%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 09:04
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.75%E -3.38%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.65%E -4.22%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 09:04
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.75%E -3.38%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.65%E -4.22%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 09:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.75%E -3.38%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.65%E -4.22%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 09:04
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -6.31%E -3.73%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -2.86%E -1.31%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-22 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.3%2026-09-22 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.3%2026-09-22 16:55
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%4.2%2026-09-22 16:55
Smarkets◎1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%8.2%2026-09-22 05:04

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.37%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.05%2.1%2026-09-22 15:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.12%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.05%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%3.1%2026-09-22 11:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.12%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.05%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%3.1%2026-09-22 11:54
Coolbet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.64%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.44%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.92%3.7%2026-09-22 09:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.22%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%4.4%2026-09-22 11:54
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.00%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%6.2%2026-09-22 13:53
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.80%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%6.2%2026-09-22 11:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.80%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%6.2%2026-09-22 11:49
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.80%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%6.2%2026-09-22 11:54
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.80%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%6.2%2026-09-22 11:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.23%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.90%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%6.6%2026-09-22 13:48
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.55%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%6.8%2026-09-20 18:24
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%10.2%2026-09-22 11:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.88%10.7%2026-09-21 20:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.98%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.21%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.81%12.4%2026-09-22 11:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.15%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.84%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.01%15.9%2026-09-21 20:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.52%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.74%17.0%2026-09-22 16:50