The School of Odds
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Frölunda HC v Djurgårdens IF

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frölunda HC (Local)

Prediction 61.08%1.64fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -2.61%
Kelly -7.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.06%61.12%61.08%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.521.521.5768.03%65.59%65.79%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Djurgårdens IF (Visit)

Prediction 19.36%5.16fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.246%
Kelly -0.307%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.83%19.34%19.36%21.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.774.905.1024.39%20.96%20.41%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.56%5.11fair odd
EV -0.261%
Edge -0.051%
Kelly -0.064%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.68%19.54%19.56%21.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.824.905.1024.39%20.75%20.41%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frölunda HC (Local): 61.08%; Djurgårdens IF (Visit): 19.36%; Draw: 19.56%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.10, with an expected value of -0.261%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.77%EV -7.07%E -1.47%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.77%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 12:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.81%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.28%EV -3.19%E -0.639%K -0.798%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.91%EV -0.261%E -0.051%K -0.064%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 12:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.81%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.28%EV -3.19%E -0.639%K -0.798%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.91%EV -0.261%E -0.051%K -0.064%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 12:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.81%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.28%EV -3.19%E -0.639%K -0.798%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.91%EV -0.261%E -0.051%K -0.064%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 12:15
Betway🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.36%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -8.03%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV -7.11%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-12 12:15
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.96%EV -5.32%E -3.43%K -9.68%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.83%EV -1.26%E -0.246%K -0.307%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV -2.22%E -0.443%K -0.554%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 16:40
Everygame🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.06%EV -5.32%E -3.43%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -12.87%E -2.86%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.95%EV -19.82%E -4.83%K -6.39%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-12 12:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.87%EV -5.93%E -3.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%EV -5.13%E -1.05%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.68%EV -0.261%E -0.051%K -0.064%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 13:40
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.14%EV -5.93%E -3.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.45%EV -6.29%E -1.30%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.41%EV -5.15%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-12 04:09
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -5.13%E -1.05%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -2.22%E -0.443%K -0.554%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-12 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.95%EV -4.16%E -0.841%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.34%EV -5.15%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 04:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -7.77%E -5.14%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -5.13%E -1.05%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -2.22%E -0.443%K -0.554%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 13:40
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -7.77%E -5.14%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -5.13%E -1.05%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -2.22%E -0.443%K -0.554%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 13:40
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -7.77%E -5.14%K -15.23%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -5.13%E -1.05%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -2.22%E -0.443%K -0.554%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 13:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%EV -8.38%E -5.58%K -16.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -14.81%E -3.37%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-12 12:15
LeoVegas🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.81%EV -8.99%E -6.03%K -18.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -8.03%E -1.69%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -4.17%E -0.851%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-12 13:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.80%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.48%EV -17.71%E -4.17%K -5.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.72%EV -17.86%E -4.25%K -5.58%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-12 17:45
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.77%EV -10.21%E -6.95%K -21.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.32%EV -9.00%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-12 13:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 58.81%EV -10.21%E -6.95%K -21.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.09%EV -20.62%E -5.03%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.10%EV -15.91%E -3.70%K -4.82%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-12 12:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 71.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13%1.6%2026-03-12 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 71.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13%1.6%2026-03-12 17:55
Smarkets◎1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%4.3%2026-03-12 16:35
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%4.5%2026-03-11 08:44
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-03-12 17:40
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-03-12 17:39
theScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-03-10 21:34
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-03-10 21:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-03-10 21:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-03-10 21:15
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.13%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.88%6.0%2026-03-12 12:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-03-11 13:45
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-03-11 13:45
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-03-11 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-03-11 13:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%8.2%2026-03-10 21:39
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.05%8.3%2026-03-12 17:50