The School of Odds
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Frölunda HC v Djurgårdens IF

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:15 UTC

Final: Frölunda HC 4–2 Djurgårdens IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frölunda HC (Local)

Prediction 67.71%1.48fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.71%
Kelly -9.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.74%67.88%67.51%69.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.361.4275.19%72.99%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Djurgårdens IF (Visit)

Prediction 32.29%3.10fair odd
EV +0.089%
Edge +0.029%
Kelly +0.043%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.02%32.12%32.49%33.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.023.103.1035.09%33.08%32.26%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frölunda HC (Local): 67.71%; Djurgårdens IF (Visit): 32.29%. For Djurgårdens IF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.097. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.100, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.089%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -5.20%E -3.72%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV +0.089%E +0.029%K +0.043%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-03 12:40
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.91%E -5.82%K -21.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.089%E +0.029%K +0.043%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 20:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.91%E -5.82%K -21.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.089%E +0.029%K +0.043%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 20:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.91%E -5.82%K -21.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.089%E +0.029%K +0.043%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 20:20
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.94%E -7.47%K -30.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +0.089%E +0.029%K +0.043%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-02 06:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.94%E -7.47%K -30.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +0.089%E +0.029%K +0.043%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-02 06:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.94%E -7.47%K -30.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +0.089%E +0.029%K +0.043%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-02 06:29
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.94%E -7.47%K -30.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +0.089%E +0.029%K +0.043%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-02 06:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.94%E -7.47%K -30.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -3.14%E -1.05%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-03 12:40
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.75%E -1.61%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-03 12:44
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.98%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-03 12:51
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.98%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-03 12:44
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.85%E -2.71%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.98%E -2.80%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-03 12:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%3.0%2026-10-03 13:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-10-03 13:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%5.6%2026-10-03 13:10
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%6.2%2026-10-03 12:51

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.99%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.62%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.39%3.2%2026-10-03 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.99%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.62%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.39%3.2%2026-10-03 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.99%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.62%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.39%3.2%2026-10-03 12:51
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.84%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.50%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.66%3.8%2026-10-03 10:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.34%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.36%4.5%2026-10-03 12:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.83%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%5.4%2026-10-03 12:40
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.69%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.04%5.6%2026-10-03 12:40
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.65%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.22%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.13%6.3%2026-10-03 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%6.6%2026-10-03 12:51
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%6.6%2026-10-03 12:51
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%6.6%2026-10-03 12:51
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%6.6%2026-10-03 12:51
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.10%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.05%6.7%2026-10-03 12:55
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%9.9%2026-10-03 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.11%10.5%2026-10-03 12:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.37%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.29%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.34%13.0%2026-10-03 12:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 56.76%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.54%15.9%2026-10-03 12:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 55.54%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.82%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.64%20.0%2026-10-03 12:40