The School of Odds
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Färjestad BK v Rögle BK

Kickoff: 2026-09-24 17:00 UTC

Final: Färjestad BK 2–1 Rögle BK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Färjestad BK (Local)

Prediction 61.01%1.64fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.720%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.59%61.25%60.80%62.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.581.571.6266.23%63.48%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rögle BK (Visit)

Prediction 38.99%2.56fair odd
EV +0.209%
Edge +0.082%
Kelly +0.133%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.01%38.75%39.20%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.362.382.5745.45%42.37%42.02%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Färjestad BK (Local): 61.01%; Rögle BK (Visit): 38.99%. For Rögle BK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.209%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -7.88%E -5.22%K -15.45%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV +0.209%E +0.082%K +0.133%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 16:50
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.83%E -3.09%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.52%E -1.01%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-24 16:34
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.00%E -1.89%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.47%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-24 16:45
Betsson🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.83%E -3.09%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.64%E -2.33%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-24 16:45
NordicBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.83%E -3.09%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.64%E -2.33%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-24 16:44
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.20%E -3.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-24 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.20%E -3.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-24 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.20%E -3.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-24 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.66%E -4.35%K -12.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.20%E -3.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-24 16:45
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -1.17%E -0.720%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -14.22%E -6.46%K -11.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-23 08:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -1.17%E -0.720%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -14.22%E -6.46%K -11.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-23 08:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -1.78%E -1.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -14.22%E -6.46%K -11.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-23 08:45
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -1.78%E -1.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -14.22%E -6.46%K -11.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-23 08:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 59.44%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.56%5.8%2026-09-24 16:55
Smarkets◎1.42I 70.42%NM 62.03%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.97%13.5%2026-09-24 16:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.62%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35%2.8%2026-09-24 15:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.62%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35%2.8%2026-09-24 15:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.62%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35%2.8%2026-09-24 15:30
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.88%3.9%2026-09-24 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.22%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%5.3%2026-09-24 15:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.80%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%5.7%2026-09-24 16:40
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.83%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.73%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%6.1%2026-09-24 16:52
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%6.3%2026-09-24 16:40
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.35%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%6.6%2026-09-24 15:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%6.7%2026-09-24 16:59
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%6.9%2026-09-24 15:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%6.9%2026-09-24 15:30
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%6.9%2026-09-24 15:30
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%9.8%2026-09-24 15:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.43%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%11.0%2026-09-24 16:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.47%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.08%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.45%12.7%2026-09-24 15:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.22%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.16%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%16.3%2026-09-24 16:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.90%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.59%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.51%16.5%2026-09-24 16:45