The School of Odds
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Färjestad BK v Rögle BK

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 13:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Färjestad BK (Local)

Prediction 45.18%2.21fair odd
EV +0.747%
Edge +0.335%
Kelly +0.607%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.24%44.98%45.18%46.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.062.072.2352.63%48.44%48.31%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rögle BK (Visit)

Prediction 31.67%3.16fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.593%
Kelly -0.875%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.77%31.87%31.67%33.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.952.993.1037.74%33.88%33.50%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.16%4.32fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -0.653%
Kelly -0.857%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.07%23.15%23.16%24.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.984.004.2027.78%25.13%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Färjestad BK (Local): 45.18%; Rögle BK (Visit): 31.67%; Draw: 23.16%. For Färjestad BK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.747%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.24%EV +0.747%E +0.335%K +0.607%G +0.005%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.25%EV -8.17%E -2.82%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%EV -5.06%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-03 12:58
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.20%EV -1.96%E -0.905%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.40%EV -6.27%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.39%EV -5.06%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-03 12:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.48%EV -2.87%E -1.33%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.20%EV -5.95%E -2.00%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.32%EV -5.06%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 12:58
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.20%EV -3.32%E -1.55%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.20%EV -1.84%E -0.593%K -0.875%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.59%EV -5.06%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-03 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.20%EV -3.32%E -1.55%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.20%EV -1.84%E -0.593%K -0.875%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.59%EV -5.06%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-03 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.20%EV -3.32%E -1.55%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.20%EV -1.84%E -0.593%K -0.875%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.59%EV -5.06%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-03 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.44%EV -5.13%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.29%EV -3.42%E -1.12%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%EV -5.06%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-03 13:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.05%EV -6.48%E -3.13%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.25%EV -3.42%E -1.12%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%EV -2.74%E -0.653%K -0.857%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-03 13:00
Unibet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.30%EV -6.48%E -3.13%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.37%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.30%EV -6.48%E -3.13%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.37%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 13:00
Grosvenor🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.30%EV -6.48%E -3.13%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.37%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 13:00
Casumo🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.30%EV -6.48%E -3.13%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.37%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 13:00
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%EV -9.75%E -3.42%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.62%EV -15.48%E -4.24%K -5.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-03 12:59
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.53%EV -8.74%E -4.33%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.59%E -2.23%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.29%EV -8.53%E -2.16%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 13:00
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -9.64%E -4.82%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.00%E -1.67%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.37%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 13:00
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.40%EV -9.64%E -4.82%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -8.17%E -2.82%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -9.69%E -2.48%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-03 13:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.28%EV -9.64%E -4.82%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.67%EV -16.09%E -6.07%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.05%EV -16.64%E -4.62%K -6.40%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-03 12:58
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.17%EV -11.45%E -5.84%K -11.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.75%EV -9.75%E -3.42%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.07%EV -5.06%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-03 13:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.64%EV -12.35%E -6.37%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.06%EV -9.75%E -3.42%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.01%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-03 13:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.36%EV -14.16%E -7.45%K -15.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.34%EV -12.92%E -4.70%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.29%EV -14.32%E -3.87%K -5.30%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-03 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14%1.1%2026-04-03 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.86%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.14%1.1%2026-04-03 13:00
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%3.4%2026-04-03 13:00
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%4.3%2026-04-03 12:59
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-04-03 12:59
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-04-03 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-04-03 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-04-03 12:59
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%6.2%2026-04-03 13:00
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%6.2%2026-04-03 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-04-03 12:59
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-04-03 12:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-04-03 13:00
Smarkets◎1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%8.0%2026-04-03 12:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%8.1%2026-04-03 13:00
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%8.7%2026-04-03 13:00
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 55.94%1.79I 55.87%NM 44.06%26.8%2026-04-03 13:00