The School of Odds
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Färjestad BK v Rögle BK

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 14:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Färjestad BK (Local)

Prediction 59.90%1.67fair odd
EV +0.631%
Edge +0.375%
Kelly +0.927%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%59.58%60.10%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.571.6866.67%64.10%63.69%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rögle BK (Visit)

Prediction 40.10%2.49fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.716%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%40.42%39.90%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.242.382.382.4544.64%41.98%42.02%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Färjestad BK (Local): 59.90%; Rögle BK (Visit): 40.10%. For Färjestad BK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.67. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.631%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV +0.631%E +0.375%K +0.927%G +0.006%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -10.17%E -4.54%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-27 00:44
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.56%E -2.21%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-27 01:35
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.36%E -3.39%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-28 02:00
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.36%E -3.39%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-28 02:00
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.96%E -3.80%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-27 01:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.96%E -3.80%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-27 01:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.96%E -3.80%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.56%E -1.92%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-27 01:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.96%E -3.80%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.77%E -4.34%K -7.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-27 01:34
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -7.16%E -4.62%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -2.56%E -1.05%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-28 02:30
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -10.15%E -6.77%K -20.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 07:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -10.15%E -6.77%K -20.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 07:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -10.15%E -6.77%K -20.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 07:00
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -10.15%E -6.77%K -20.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -1.75%E -0.716%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 06:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%7.0%2026-03-27 22:20
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%8.4%2026-03-28 02:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-03-27 04:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-03-27 04:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.05%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%3.5%2026-03-27 11:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.05%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%3.5%2026-03-27 11:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.05%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%3.5%2026-03-27 11:14
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.49%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.66%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.86%4.2%2026-03-27 06:09
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.69%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.84%4.2%2026-03-27 00:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.15%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.75%4.5%2026-03-27 11:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.99%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.75%4.7%2026-03-27 00:59
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%6.3%2026-03-27 11:04
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%6.3%2026-03-27 11:14
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%6.3%2026-03-27 11:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%6.3%2026-03-27 11:14
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%8.8%2026-03-27 11:14
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.17%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%9.5%2026-03-27 11:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%11.0%2026-03-27 03:09
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%11.3%2026-03-27 06:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.39%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.38%14.1%2026-03-28 02:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.39%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.38%14.1%2026-03-28 02:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 47.38%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.78%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.84%19.9%2026-03-27 03:10