The School of Odds
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Färjestad BK v Örebro HK

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:00 UTC

Final: Färjestad BK 7–0 Örebro HK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Färjestad BK (Local)

Prediction 60.00%1.67fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -4.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.30%59.92%60.10%62.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.571.6267.57%64.59%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Örebro HK (Visit)

Prediction 40.00%2.50fair odd
EV +0.001%
Edge +0.000%
Kelly +0.001%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.19%40.08%39.90%40.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.422.382.5042.55%41.37%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Färjestad BK (Local): 60.00%; Örebro HK (Visit): 40.00%. For Örebro HK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49998. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50000, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.001%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -11.20%E -7.57%K -23.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV +0.001%E +0.000%K +0.001%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-15 16:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -11.20%E -7.57%K -23.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV +0.001%E +0.000%K +0.001%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-15 16:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -11.20%E -7.57%K -23.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV +0.001%E +0.000%K +0.001%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-15 16:10
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -11.20%E -7.57%K -23.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV +0.001%E +0.000%K +0.001%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-15 17:34
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.20%E -3.29%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.00%E -1.67%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.20%E -3.29%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 14:01
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -5.20%E -3.29%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 14:01
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-17 09:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-17 09:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.80%E -3.69%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.80%E -2.02%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-17 09:55
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -2.80%E -1.73%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -5.60%E -2.37%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-18 05:00
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.60%E -2.89%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.00%E -2.55%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-17 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.53%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%1.3%2026-09-19 15:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%2.0%2026-09-19 15:54
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%2.9%2026-09-19 14:56
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 59.90%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%8.4%2026-09-19 14:01

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.05%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.95%3.7%2026-09-19 15:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.05%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.95%3.7%2026-09-19 15:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.05%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.95%3.7%2026-09-19 15:49
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.56%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.59%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%4.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.79%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%5.1%2026-09-17 09:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%5.6%2026-09-19 15:49
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.00%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.60%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-09-19 15:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%6.7%2026-09-19 15:54
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.84%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%6.9%2026-09-19 15:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%7.2%2026-09-19 15:49
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%7.2%2026-09-19 15:49
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%7.2%2026-09-19 15:49
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.71%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%10.2%2026-09-19 15:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.46%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%10.9%2026-09-17 09:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.99%13.0%2026-09-19 15:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.89%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.39%16.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.46%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.09%17.1%2026-09-19 15:49