Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Färjestad BK v Luleå HF

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 17:00 UTC

Final: Färjestad BK 2–1 Luleå HF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

56%

22%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Färjestad BK (Local)

Prediction 56.31%1.78fair odd

EV -3.71%

Edge -2.17%

Kelly -5.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.41%56.70%56.31%60.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.611.611.7166.67%62.27%62.11%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luleå HF (Visit)

Prediction 22.46%4.45fair odd

EV +5.54%

Edge +1.18%

Kelly +1.50%

Growth +0.083%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.62%22.33%22.46%23.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.654.314.504.7027.40%23.18%22.22%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.24%4.71fair odd

EV +8.31%

Edge +1.63%

Kelly +2.03%

Growth +0.168%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.81%20.97%21.24%22.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.854.704.805.1025.97%21.29%20.83%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Färjestad BK (Local): 56.31%; Luleå HF (Visit): 22.46%; Draw: 21.24%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.71. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.31%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 60.30%EV -9.35%E -5.80%K -15.32%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.66%EV +5.54%E +1.18%K +1.50%G +0.083%	5.10I 19.61%NM 19.04%EV +8.31%E +1.63%K +2.03%G +0.168%	3.0%	2026-10-15 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 60.30%EV -9.35%E -5.80%K -15.32%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.66%EV +5.54%E +1.18%K +1.50%G +0.083%	5.10I 19.61%NM 19.04%EV +8.31%E +1.63%K +2.03%G +0.168%	3.0%	2026-10-15 13:15
Svenska Spel🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 60.30%EV -9.35%E -5.80%K -15.32%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.66%EV +5.54%E +1.18%K +1.50%G +0.083%	5.10I 19.61%NM 19.04%EV +8.31%E +1.63%K +2.03%G +0.168%	3.0%	2026-10-15 13:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.41%EV -11.60%E -7.39%K -20.35%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV +3.30%E +0.717%K +0.916%G +0.030%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV +6.18%E +1.24%K +1.55%G +0.096%	5.4%	2026-10-15 13:15
Casumo🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -12.16%E -7.80%K -21.72%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV +1.05%E +0.234%K +0.301%G +0.003%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV +6.18%E +1.24%K +1.55%G +0.096%	6.3%	2026-10-15 13:15
Unibet🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -12.16%E -7.80%K -21.72%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV +1.05%E +0.234%K +0.301%G +0.003%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV +6.18%E +1.24%K +1.55%G +0.096%	6.3%	2026-10-15 13:15
Grosvenor🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -12.16%E -7.80%K -21.72%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV +1.05%E +0.234%K +0.301%G +0.003%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV +6.18%E +1.24%K +1.55%G +0.096%	6.3%	2026-10-15 13:14
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -12.16%E -7.80%K -21.72%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV +1.05%E +0.234%K +0.301%G +0.003%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV +6.18%E +1.24%K +1.55%G +0.096%	6.3%	2026-10-15 13:15
Coolbet🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.61%EV -7.66%E -4.67%K -11.96%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%EV +1.05%E +0.234%K +0.301%G +0.003%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.03%EV +1.94%E +0.403%K +0.509%G +0.010%	4.0%	2026-10-15 15:59
TABtouch🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.48%EV -15.54%E -10.36%K -31.08%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -1.19%E -0.271%K -0.351%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 18.90%EV +1.94%E +0.403%K +0.509%G +0.010%	10.2%	2026-10-15 13:14
Betway🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.11%EV -3.71%E -2.17%K -5.23%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.57%EV -4.56%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.32%EV -4.44%E -0.986%K -1.27%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-15 10:35
1xBet🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.34%EV -4.28%E -2.52%K -6.11%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -10.17%E -2.54%K -3.39%G +0.000%	4.45I 22.47%NM 21.14%EV -5.50%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-15 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -5.40%E -3.22%K -7.95%G +0.000%	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.14%EV -9.05%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%	4.45I 22.47%NM 21.06%EV -5.50%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-15 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.27%EV -5.40%E -3.22%K -7.95%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.24%EV -4.56%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -6.56%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-15 10:35
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -8.78%E -5.42%K -14.17%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -12.42%E -3.18%K -4.28%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%EV -8.68%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-10-15 10:34
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 55.02%EV -12.16%E -7.80%K -21.72%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 23.52%EV -18.03%E -4.94%K -6.81%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 21.46%EV -15.05%E -3.76%K -5.02%G +0.000%	16.5%	2026-10-15 10:35
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 54.41%EV -11.60%E -7.39%K -20.35%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 23.40%EV -18.03%E -4.94%K -6.81%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 22.19%EV -18.24%E -4.74%K -6.40%G +0.000%	17.1%	2026-10-15 16:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.94%	3.03I 33.00%NM 32.06%	2.9%	2026-10-15 16:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%	3.8%	2026-10-15 10:35
DraftKings🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%	4.4%	2026-10-15 16:55
Betsson🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%	5.3%	2026-10-15 10:34
NordicBet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%	5.3%	2026-10-15 10:35
Pinnacle🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%	2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%	5.4%	2026-10-15 14:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%	5.9%	2026-10-15 11:14
888sport (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%	5.9%	2026-10-15 11:14
888sport🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%	5.9%	2026-10-15 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%	7.1%	2026-10-15 13:39
Coral🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%	7.1%	2026-10-15 13:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%	7.1%	2026-10-15 13:40
Neds🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%	7.1%	2026-10-15 13:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61%	2.86I 34.97%NM 32.39%	8.0%	2026-10-15 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%	8.3%	2026-10-15 07:40
Smarkets◎	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.83%	2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%	8.4%	2026-10-15 10:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.37I 72.99%NM 42.68%	1.02I 98.04%NM 57.32%	71.0%	2026-10-15 16:30