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Färjestad BK v Leksands IF

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Färjestad BK (Local)

Prediction 59.05%1.69fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -7.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.15%59.11%59.05%60.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.571.6266.67%63.55%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leksands IF (Visit)

Prediction 20.88%4.79fair odd
EV +0.227%
Edge +0.047%
Kelly +0.060%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.19%20.78%20.88%22.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.504.554.8025.64%22.23%21.98%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.07%4.98fair odd
EV +0.348%
Edge +0.070%
Kelly +0.087%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.37%20.11%20.07%22.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.684.755.0025.00%21.37%21.05%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Färjestad BK (Local): 59.05%; Leksands IF (Visit): 20.88%; Draw: 20.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.98. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.348%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.33%EV -4.93%E -3.06%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.24%EV +0.227%E +0.047%K +0.060%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%EV +0.348%E +0.070%K +0.087%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-25 13:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.33%EV -4.93%E -3.06%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.24%EV +0.227%E +0.047%K +0.060%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%EV +0.348%E +0.070%K +0.087%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-25 13:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.33%EV -4.93%E -3.06%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.24%EV +0.227%E +0.047%K +0.060%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%EV +0.348%E +0.070%K +0.087%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-25 13:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.44%EV -7.29%E -4.64%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.19%EV -1.86%E -0.396%K -0.503%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -1.66%E -0.338%K -0.425%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-25 13:30
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.72%EV -4.93%E -3.06%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.24%EV -0.817%E -0.172%K -0.218%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.03%EV -3.67%E -0.764%K -0.965%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-26 17:03
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -7.88%E -5.05%K -14.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -3.95%E -0.858%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -3.67%E -0.764%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-25 13:29
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -7.88%E -5.05%K -14.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -3.95%E -0.858%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -3.67%E -0.764%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-25 13:24
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -7.88%E -5.05%K -14.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -3.95%E -0.858%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -3.67%E -0.764%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-25 13:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -7.88%E -5.05%K -14.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -3.95%E -0.858%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -3.67%E -0.764%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-25 13:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.79%EV -4.34%E -2.68%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -6.04%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -4.67%E -0.983%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-26 15:10
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.94%EV -4.93%E -3.06%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -6.04%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%EV -4.67%E -0.983%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-26 15:10
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.16%EV -9.65%E -6.31%K -18.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -6.04%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -4.67%E -0.983%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-25 13:30
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.36%EV -10.84%E -7.18%K -21.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -6.04%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -5.67%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-25 13:29
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.47%EV -4.93%E -3.06%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.06%EV -6.66%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.68%E -1.67%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 17:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.99%EV -6.11%E -3.84%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.62%EV -4.99%E -1.10%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%EV -7.68%E -1.67%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-26 17:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.90%EV -7.88%E -5.05%K -14.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -14.39%E -3.51%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -9.69%E -2.15%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-26 15:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.41%EV -11.43%E -7.62%K -22.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%EV -18.57%E -4.76%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.50%EV -15.71%E -3.74%K -4.91%G +0.000%16.1%2026-02-26 15:10
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.27%EV -10.24%E -6.74%K -19.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.76%EV -16.48%E -4.12%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.97%EV -16.71%E -4.03%K -5.31%G +0.000%14.9%2026-02-26 15:10
Everygame🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.15%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -12.30%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -19.72%E -4.93%K -6.57%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-26 17:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.37I 72.99%NM 70.85%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.0%2026-02-26 17:45
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%4.2%2026-02-26 13:14
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%4.2%2026-02-26 15:20
Bovada🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%4.8%2026-02-26 17:24
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%5.3%2026-02-26 13:15
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%5.3%2026-02-26 13:14
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.74%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.26%5.5%2026-02-26 15:10
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-02-26 13:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-02-26 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-02-26 15:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-02-24 21:10
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%7.7%2026-02-24 21:09
Smarkets◎1.35I 74.07%NM 68.53%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.47%8.1%2026-02-26 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-02-26 13:03
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%9.7%2026-02-26 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%9.7%2026-02-26 17:45