The School of Odds
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Djurgårdens IF v Malmö Redhawks

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 13:15 UTC

Final: Djurgårdens IF 3–2 Malmö Redhawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Djurgårdens IF (Local)

Prediction 38.90%2.57fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.626%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.06%38.56%38.90%40.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.342.332.5347.62%42.69%42.92%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Malmö Redhawks (Visit)

Prediction 37.90%2.64fair odd
EV +0.432%
Edge +0.163%
Kelly +0.262%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.59%38.30%37.90%40.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.502.542.6544.44%40.01%39.37%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.20%4.31fair odd
EV -0.231%
Edge -0.054%
Kelly -0.070%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.26%23.14%23.20%23.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.114.204.3027.78%24.36%23.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Djurgårdens IF (Local): 38.90%; Malmö Redhawks (Visit): 37.90%; Draw: 23.20%. For Malmö Redhawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.432%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.59%EV -6.64%E -2.77%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.76%EV +0.432%E +0.163%K +0.262%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.65%EV -0.231%E -0.054%K -0.070%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-17 11:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.79%EV -7.42%E -3.12%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.63%EV +0.432%E +0.163%K +0.262%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.58%EV -0.231%E -0.054%K -0.070%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-17 11:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.79%EV -7.42%E -3.12%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.63%EV +0.432%E +0.163%K +0.262%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.58%EV -0.231%E -0.054%K -0.070%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-17 11:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.91%EV -9.36%E -4.02%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%EV -1.46%E -0.563%K -0.915%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -1.39%E -0.327%K -0.428%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 11:54
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -10.53%E -4.58%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.82%EV -3.36%E -1.32%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -2.55%E -0.607%K -0.797%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 11:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -10.53%E -4.58%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.82%EV -3.36%E -1.32%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -2.55%E -0.607%K -0.797%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 11:55
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -10.53%E -4.58%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.82%EV -3.36%E -1.32%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -2.55%E -0.607%K -0.797%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 11:54
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -10.53%E -4.58%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.82%EV -3.36%E -1.32%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -2.55%E -0.607%K -0.797%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 11:55
Coolbet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -5.47%E -2.25%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.84%EV -3.74%E -1.47%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.61%EV -1.39%E -0.327%K -0.428%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 12:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.57%EV -4.70%E -1.92%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.80%EV -5.25%E -2.10%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -7.19%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 13:05
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%EV -6.64%E -2.77%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.25%E -2.10%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -7.19%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 13:00
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.93%EV -13.25%E -5.94%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.81%EV -6.01%E -2.42%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -4.87%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 11:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.68%EV -18.31%E -8.72%K -16.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.59%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.73%EV -16.47%E -4.58%K -6.34%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-17 01:19
1xBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.69%EV -3.14%E -1.26%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -9.80%E -4.12%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -4.87%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 13:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -10.53%E -4.58%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.22%EV -10.94%E -4.65%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.74%EV -8.35%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.06%EV -1.58%E -0.626%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.07%EV -11.32%E -4.84%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -4.87%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 13:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.99%EV -14.42%E -6.56%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.13%EV -14.73%E -6.55%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.88%EV -12.99%E -3.46%K -4.72%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-17 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62%1.3%2026-10-17 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62%1.3%2026-10-17 13:10
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.1%2026-10-17 13:10
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%4.7%2026-10-17 13:00
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-10-17 13:00
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%4.9%2026-10-17 13:05
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%5.3%2026-10-17 13:05
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%5.3%2026-10-17 13:10
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-10-16 13:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-10-16 13:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-10-16 13:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-10-16 08:00
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-10-16 08:00
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-10-16 08:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-10-16 08:09
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%8.1%2026-10-17 13:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.41%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%10.2%2026-10-17 13:05