The School of Odds
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Djurgårdens IF v Malmö Redhawks

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Djurgårdens IF (Local)

Prediction 41.57%2.41fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.06%41.43%41.57%42.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.222.202.3047.62%45.00%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Malmö Redhawks (Visit)

Prediction 35.43%2.82fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.935%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.33%35.52%35.43%37.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.642.682.7542.55%37.89%37.31%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.00%4.35fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.259%
Kelly -0.338%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.87%23.05%23.00%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.094.204.3027.40%24.44%23.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Djurgårdens IF (Local): 41.57%; Malmö Redhawks (Visit): 35.43%; Draw: 23.00%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.30, with an expected value of -1.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -4.38%E -1.90%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.67%EV -5.05%E -1.88%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%EV -3.41%E -0.813%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-17 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -4.38%E -1.90%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.67%EV -5.05%E -1.88%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%EV -3.41%E -0.813%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-17 17:59
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.66%EV -4.38%E -1.90%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -7.89%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -8.01%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-17 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.39%EV -5.21%E -2.29%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -2.57%E -0.935%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47%EV -1.11%E -0.259%K -0.338%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-17 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.39%EV -5.21%E -2.29%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -2.57%E -0.935%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47%EV -1.11%E -0.259%K -0.338%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-17 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.39%EV -5.21%E -2.29%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -2.57%E -0.935%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47%EV -1.11%E -0.259%K -0.338%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-17 18:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.76%EV -5.63%E -2.48%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.11%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.12%EV -5.71%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-17 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.46%E -2.87%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.85%EV -2.57%E -0.935%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.55%EV -2.26%E -0.533%K -0.697%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 18:00
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%EV -8.54%E -3.88%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.41%E -0.813%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-17 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%EV -8.54%E -3.88%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.41%E -0.813%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-17 18:00
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%EV -8.54%E -3.88%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.41%E -0.813%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-17 18:00
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%EV -8.54%E -3.88%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.41%E -0.813%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-17 18:00
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -8.54%E -3.88%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.89%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -8.01%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-17 18:00
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%EV -8.54%E -3.88%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -9.66%E -3.79%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -13.76%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-17 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.76%EV -8.54%E -3.88%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -14.97%E -6.24%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -5.71%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-17 18:00
LeoVegas🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.47%EV -9.78%E -4.51%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.82%E -2.59%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.71%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-17 18:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.06%EV -10.61%E -4.94%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.65%EV -16.74%E -7.12%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.28%EV -14.91%E -4.03%K -5.52%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-17 18:00
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.41%EV -11.03%E -5.15%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -7.89%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -8.01%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-17 18:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.69%EV -12.69%E -6.04%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.33%EV -9.66%E -3.79%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.98%EV -16.06%E -4.40%K -6.06%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-17 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.77%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.23%1.1%2026-03-17 18:00
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%3.0%2026-03-17 18:00
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%4.1%2026-03-17 18:00
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%4.2%2026-03-17 17:59
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%4.8%2026-03-17 17:59
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-17 17:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-17 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-17 17:59
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%5.7%2026-03-17 17:59
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%5.7%2026-03-17 17:59
Smarkets◎1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%7.1%2026-03-17 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-03-17 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-17 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-17 17:59
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-17 17:59
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-17 17:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-03-17 18:00