The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Djurgårdens IF v IF Björklöven

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:00 UTC

Final: Djurgårdens IF 0–3 IF Björklöven

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Djurgårdens IF (Local)

Prediction 61.17%1.63fair odd
EV -0.909%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.30%61.16%61.17%62.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.551.531.6266.23%64.66%65.36%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IF Björklöven (Visit)

Prediction 38.83%2.58fair odd
EV -0.201%
Edge -0.078%
Kelly -0.128%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.01%38.84%38.83%40.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.392.362.5743.48%41.78%42.37%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Djurgårdens IF (Local): 61.17%; IF Björklöven (Visit): 38.83%. For IF Björklöven (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.57, with an expected value of -0.201%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -0.909%E -0.561%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -8.36%E -3.54%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-17 13:16
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -2.74%E -1.73%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.86%E -1.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-19 14:01
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.80%E -3.77%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.70%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 14:56
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.80%E -3.77%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.70%E -1.49%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 14:55
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.41%E -4.19%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -10.69%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 16:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.41%E -4.19%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -10.69%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 16:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.41%E -4.19%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -10.69%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 16:10
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.41%E -4.19%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -10.69%E -4.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 17:34
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -7.64%E -5.06%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -0.201%E -0.078%K -0.128%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-19 14:56
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%3.2%2026-09-19 15:02
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 62.59%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.41%4.4%2026-09-19 15:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 62.59%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.41%4.4%2026-09-19 15:11
Smarkets◎1.52I 65.79%NM 60.62%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.38%8.5%2026-09-19 14:01

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.32%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.62%2.8%2026-09-19 15:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.32%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.62%2.8%2026-09-19 15:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.92%3.7%2026-09-19 15:54
Coolbet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.53%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%4.1%2026-09-19 14:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.88%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%4.9%2026-09-19 15:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%6.1%2026-09-19 15:54
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%6.2%2026-09-16 20:10
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%6.2%2026-09-19 14:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.24%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.95%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.81%6.6%2026-09-19 14:54
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%6.7%2026-09-19 15:54
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%6.7%2026-09-19 15:54
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%6.7%2026-09-19 15:54
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.94%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%10.4%2026-09-19 15:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.19%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.08%10.5%2026-09-19 14:01
PMU (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%12.4%2026-09-19 15:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.55%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.29%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.16%15.7%2026-09-19 14:01
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 48.35%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.52%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.13%16.9%2026-09-19 15:49