The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Djurgårdens IF v Färjestad BK

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 17:00 UTC

Final: Djurgårdens IF 0–4 Färjestad BK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Djurgårdens IF (Local)

Prediction 36.77%2.72fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%37.06%36.67%38.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.552.592.6040.00%39.17%38.61%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Färjestad BK (Visit)

Prediction 63.23%1.58fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.871%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.58%62.94%63.33%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.501.501.5667.57%66.63%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Djurgårdens IF (Local): 36.77%; Färjestad BK (Visit): 63.23%. For Färjestad BK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.56, with an expected value of -1.36%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.40%E -1.69%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.26%E -2.13%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-01 16:54
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.40%E -1.69%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.15%E -3.44%K -10.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 16:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.40%E -1.69%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.15%E -3.44%K -10.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.40%E -1.69%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.15%E -3.44%K -10.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 16:54
NordicBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.40%E -1.69%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.15%E -3.44%K -10.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 16:54
Betsson🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.40%E -1.69%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.15%E -3.44%K -10.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 16:55
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%EV -4.77%E -1.84%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.33%EV -5.15%E -3.44%K -10.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 16:05
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -8.08%E -3.23%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -1.36%E -0.871%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-01 12:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.08%E -3.23%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.15%E -3.44%K -10.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-30 13:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.08%E -3.23%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.42%E -4.34%K -13.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 17:19
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.08%E -3.23%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.42%E -4.34%K -13.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.08%E -3.23%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.42%E -4.34%K -13.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 17:20
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.08%E -3.23%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.42%E -4.34%K -13.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 17:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%0.5%2026-10-01 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.04%0.7%2026-10-01 16:55
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68%2.0%2026-10-01 16:55
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 37.56%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.44%8.2%2026-10-01 16:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 27.14%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.71%2.4%2026-10-01 16:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%3.2%2026-10-01 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%3.2%2026-10-01 16:20
Coolbet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.91%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.69%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.40%3.8%2026-10-01 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.97%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.75%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.28%4.4%2026-10-01 16:20
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.65%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29%5.6%2026-10-01 16:55
1xBet🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 27.52%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.60%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.89%6.3%2026-10-01 16:40
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%6.7%2026-10-01 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%6.7%2026-10-01 16:20
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%6.7%2026-10-01 16:20
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%6.7%2026-10-01 16:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.25%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.95%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%6.7%2026-10-01 16:35
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.35%10.2%2026-10-01 16:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.22%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%10.9%2026-10-01 16:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.79%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%12.3%2026-10-01 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.47%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.63%15.6%2026-10-01 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.51%16.9%2026-10-01 16:55