The School of Odds
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Brynäs IF v Luleå HF

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:15 UTC

Final: Brynäs IF 4–2 Luleå HF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brynäs IF (Local)

Prediction 59.41%1.68fair odd
EV -0.790%
Edge -0.473%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.59%59.29%59.30%60.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.611.611.6763.69%62.23%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luleå HF (Visit)

Prediction 40.59%2.46fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.70%40.71%40.70%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.292.302.4045.45%43.67%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brynäs IF (Local): 59.41%; Luleå HF (Visit): 40.59%. For Brynäs IF (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -0.790%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -0.790%E -0.473%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -6.64%E -2.89%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-26 06:05
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.76%E -2.32%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.20%E -1.78%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-26 04:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.76%E -2.32%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.70%E -4.86%K -8.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-25 07:04
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.76%E -2.32%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.70%E -4.86%K -8.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-25 07:05
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.35%E -2.70%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.64%E -2.89%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 12:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.35%E -2.70%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.64%E -2.89%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 12:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.35%E -2.70%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.64%E -2.89%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 12:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -4.35%E -2.70%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -10.70%E -4.86%K -8.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-25 07:00
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -4.35%E -2.70%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -10.70%E -4.86%K -8.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-25 07:05
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.14%E -3.88%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.58%E -1.07%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 12:25
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -6.14%E -3.88%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -3.39%E -1.42%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 10:40
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -6.14%E -3.88%K -10.58%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -3.39%E -1.42%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 10:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.73%E -4.29%K -11.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.67%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-25 12:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 59.44%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.56%5.8%2026-09-26 13:10
Smarkets◎1.59I 62.89%NM 58.05%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%8.3%2026-09-26 13:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.04%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.28%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.68%2.5%2026-09-26 11:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%3.0%2026-09-26 11:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%3.0%2026-09-26 11:35
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.30%4.3%2026-09-26 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.37%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%5.0%2026-09-26 11:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%5.6%2026-09-26 11:40
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.74%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.12%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-09-26 12:36
Grosvenor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.30%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%6.3%2026-09-26 11:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.30%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%6.3%2026-09-26 11:40
Unibet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.30%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%6.3%2026-09-26 11:40
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.30%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%6.3%2026-09-26 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.05%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.91%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%6.7%2026-09-26 12:34
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.79%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%6.9%2026-09-26 11:40
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.30%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%9.8%2026-09-26 11:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%11.0%2026-09-26 11:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.16%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%12.6%2026-09-26 11:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 46.44%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.15%15.8%2026-09-26 11:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 45.89%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.04%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.07%17.2%2026-09-26 13:05