The School of Odds
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Brynäs IF v IF Björklöven

Kickoff: 2026-10-08 17:00 UTC

Final: Brynäs IF 4–1 IF Björklöven

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brynäs IF (Local)

Prediction 55.90%1.79fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.22%55.84%55.90%56.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.671.681.7464.94%59.80%59.52%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IF Björklöven (Visit)

Prediction 23.47%4.26fair odd
EV +0.923%
Edge +0.215%
Kelly +0.280%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.39%23.56%23.47%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.254.014.104.3030.77%24.93%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.63%4.85fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.421%
Kelly -0.533%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.09%20.61%20.63%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.384.454.7526.32%22.83%22.47%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brynäs IF (Local): 55.90%; IF Björklöven (Visit): 23.47%; Draw: 20.63%. For IF Björklöven (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.923%.

14 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.82%EV -2.74%E -1.57%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.59%EV +0.923%E +0.215%K +0.280%G +0.003%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%EV -7.16%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-05 09:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.82%EV -2.74%E -1.57%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.59%EV +0.923%E +0.215%K +0.280%G +0.003%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%EV -7.16%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-05 09:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.82%EV -2.74%E -1.57%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.59%EV +0.923%E +0.215%K +0.280%G +0.003%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%EV -7.16%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-05 09:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.84%EV -4.41%E -2.58%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47%EV -0.250%E -0.059%K -0.077%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.70%EV -9.22%E -2.10%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-05 09:10
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.98%EV -6.09%E -3.63%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -1.42%E -0.339%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -10.25%E -2.36%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.98%EV -6.09%E -3.63%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -1.42%E -0.339%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -10.25%E -2.36%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.98%EV -6.09%E -3.63%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -1.42%E -0.339%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -10.25%E -2.36%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.98%EV -6.09%E -3.63%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -1.42%E -0.339%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -10.25%E -2.36%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:10
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.58%EV -4.97%E -2.93%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.18%EV -2.60%E -0.626%K -0.824%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.25%EV -2.00%E -0.421%K -0.533%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-04 11:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -6.65%E -3.98%K -9.93%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.17%EV -4.94%E -1.22%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.63%EV -6.13%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 14:35
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -4.41%E -2.58%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -7.16%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 09:15
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.74%EV -5.53%E -3.27%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.70%EV -6.13%E -1.35%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-04 14:39
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.69%EV -8.89%E -5.45%K -14.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -13.35%E -3.18%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-05 09:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.70%EV -10.56%E -6.60%K -17.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.56%EV -7.29%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -15.41%E -3.76%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-05 09:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -4.41%E -2.58%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -8.46%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -5.10%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-05 09:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.13%EV -8.33%E -5.08%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -14.33%E -3.93%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -7.16%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-05 09:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 53.68%EV -12.80%E -8.20%K -22.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.38%EV -22.55%E -6.83%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.94%EV -17.47%E -4.37%K -5.82%G +0.000%19.4%2026-10-05 09:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 53.22%EV -13.92%E -9.04%K -25.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.22%EV -23.72%E -7.30%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.57%EV -21.60%E -5.68%K -7.71%G +0.000%22.0%2026-10-05 09:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (14)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%4.2%2026-10-04 20:30
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-10-04 08:50
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-10-05 09:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-10-04 08:00
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-10-04 08:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-10-04 08:05
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%6.1%2026-10-04 08:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-10-05 09:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-10-04 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-10-04 16:35
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-10-04 16:34
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-10-04 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 11:01
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 11:01