The School of Odds
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Visby/Roma HK v Västerås IK

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 15:00 UTC

Final: Visby/Roma HK 4–1 Västerås IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Visby/Roma HK (Local)

Prediction 28.93%3.46fair odd
EV +9.93%
Edge +2.61%
Kelly +3.55%
Growth +0.353%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.23%28.93%29.25%29.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.573.703.8032.79%28.04%27.03%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Västerås IK (Visit)

Prediction 49.89%2.00fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -3.02%
Kelly -6.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.51%49.89%49.80%53.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.801.811.8958.48%55.45%55.25%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.18%4.72fair odd
EV -6.82%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.94%21.18%20.95%21.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.354.384.4023.81%22.99%22.86%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Visby/Roma HK (Local): 28.93%; Västerås IK (Visit): 49.89%; Draw: 21.18%. For Visby/Roma HK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.93%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.23%EV +9.93%E +2.61%K +3.55%G +0.353%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.98%EV -9.69%E -5.36%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.79%EV -6.82%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-11 14:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.23%EV +9.93%E +2.61%K +3.55%G +0.353%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.98%EV -9.69%E -5.36%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.79%EV -6.82%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-11 14:49
ATG (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.23%EV +9.93%E +2.61%K +3.55%G +0.353%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.98%EV -9.69%E -5.36%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.79%EV -6.82%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-11 14:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.23%EV +9.93%E +2.61%K +3.55%G +0.353%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.98%EV -9.69%E -5.36%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.79%EV -6.82%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-11 14:45
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV +7.04%E +1.90%K +2.61%G +0.184%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.04%EV -11.69%E -6.60%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -7.88%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 14:50
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV +7.04%E +1.90%K +2.61%G +0.184%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.04%EV -11.69%E -6.60%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -7.88%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 14:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV +7.04%E +1.90%K +2.61%G +0.184%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.04%EV -11.69%E -6.60%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -7.88%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 14:50
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV +4.15%E +1.15%K +1.60%G +0.066%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.13%EV -14.68%E -8.59%K -20.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -11.06%E -2.63%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-11 14:49
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -1.64%E -0.482%K -0.682%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.37%EV -5.70%E -3.02%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -6.82%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 11:24
1xBet🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 27.92%EV -4.82%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.47%EV -9.19%E -5.05%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -10.00%E -2.35%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 13:14
Unibet (UK)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -8.87%E -2.82%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.81%EV -7.70%E -4.16%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -6.82%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 11:54
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -11.76%E -3.86%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.51%EV -9.19%E -5.05%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95%EV -8.94%E -2.08%K -2.71%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-11 11:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-10-11 14:54
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%5.4%2026-10-11 14:54
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%7.2%2026-10-11 12:00
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%7.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%7.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 39.53%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.47%8.1%2026-10-11 11:55